We’re getting down the final few games of the regular season in Big South basketball, a perfect time to take a peek at what the conference tournament will look like when the quarterfinals open on Tuesday, March 2.

The home seeds, realistically, are nearly set. Liberty has virtually no chance of catching the Bulldogs, who own the tiebreaker via a season sweep. High Point has a better chance, but the Panthers need to win out and have Winthrop beat UNCA next week. High Point’s win over Coastal Carolina gives the Panthers the tiebreaker edge over the Bulldogs. Those teams split their season season.

Going from top to bottom:

COASTAL CAROLINA (12-3)
Games remaining: vs. Charleston Southern, vs. VMI, vs. Liberty
Analysis: The Chanticleers have been nearly unbeatable at home and they need only to win two of the three to clinch the regular season championship.
Prediction: Coastal wins out and finished 15-3.

WINTHROP (11-4)
Games remaining: vs. UNCA, at High Point, at Radford
Analysis: Winthrop has been one of the league’s hottest teams, having gone 10-1 since a 1-3 start in conference play. The Eagles’ lone loss during the stretch was at UNCA; High Point is one of the conference’s toughest home venues; and Winthrop lost in OT at home to Radford back in December.
Prediction: Eagles beat UNCA, lose to HPU and RU to finish 12-6.

RADFORD (11-5)
Games remaining: vs. Presbyterian, vs. Winthrop
Analysis: The win at Liberty puts Radford in control in terms of finishing second in the conference race. If the Highlanders hold serve at home, they take second no matter what Winthrop does.
Prediction: Radford wins twice, finishes 13-5.

UNC ASHEVILLE (10-6)
Games remaining: at Winthrop, vs. Gardner-Webb
Analysis: The Bulldogs’ sweep of Liberty and VMI last week put UNCA in great shape for getting a home game.
Prediction: UNCA splits, winning the home game to finish 11-7.

HIGH POINT (8-7)
Games remaining: at Liberty, vs. Winthrop, vs. Presbyterian
Analysis: High Point is the one team that can conceivably catch UNCA for fourth. Something has to give tomorrow night. High Point has little in the way of impressive road wins (Gardner-Webb is the best?). Liberty has eight wins this season against Division I teams, and only one of those opponents has more than 10 victories (Radford).
Prediction: HPU wins out, finishes 11-7 and takes fourth.

LIBERTY (8-7)
Games remaining: vs. High Point, at Coastal Carolina, at Charleston Southern
Analysis: The Flames’ freshmen might be hitting the wall. The 28-point loss at High Point was as much about poor defense as it was about Liberty playing without Kyle Ohman. LU really has no one who can defend Nick Barbour. If the Flames lose Saturday, I don’t think they’ll win either game next week. Both very tough road venues.
Prediction: Liberty finishes 8-10.

CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (6-9)
Games remaining: at Coastal Carolina, vs. VMI, vs. Liberty
Analysis: CSU was 5-3 at one point in league but has lost six of seven. The Bucs won’t beat Coastal. VMI is playing much better of late and could give the Bucs a game in their gym.
Prediction: CSU finishes 7-11, losing to VMI and Coastal while beating Liberty.

VMI (5-11)
Games remaining: at Charleston Southern, at Coastal Carolina
Analysis: VMI has begun to get its act together, and Stan Okoye is fighting through the traditional wall that usually hits VMI Rats. The Keydets match up with CSU and can sneak a win there.
Prediction: VMI finishes 6-12.

GARDNER-WEBB (4-12)
Games remaining: at Presbyterian, at UNC Asheville
Analysis: On life support. The Bulldogs’ ability to win a tiebreaker with VMI really depends on how other teams finish. If VMI loses twice and GWU beats Presbyterian, VMI wins the tiebreak because it swept High Point. If GWU instead beats UNCA, the Bulldogs would win the tiebreaker only if UNCA finishes ahead of High Point in the standings. Of course, that would be tough because UNCA won’t likely finish ahead of HPU unless it beats Gardner-Webb. GWU’s best hopes are to win twice on the road and have VMI lose twice. I put the chances of that happening at 12.4 percent.
Prediction: GWU loses twice, finishes 4-14.

PRESBYTERIAN (2-13)
Games remaining: vs. Gardner-Webb, at Radford, at High Point.
Analysis: PC is ineligible for the league tournament.
Prediction: PC wins the home game, loses the roadies. Finishes 3-15.

So your tournament field:
(8) VMI at (1) Coastal Carolina
(5) UNCA at (4) High Point
(6) Liberty at (3) Winthrop
(7) Charleston Southern at (2) Radford

And since we’re speculating, let’s throw out some finalists for the awards that will come out on Monday, March 1. Listed in no particular order:

PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Art Parakhouski, Radford
Joseph Harris, Coastal Carolina
Nick Barbour, High Point
Jamarco Warren, Charleston Southern
FAVORITE: Parakhouski. It’s not close.

FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR
Jeremy Sexton, Charleston Southern
Stan Okoye, VMI
Evan Gordon, Liberty
Blake Smith, Radford
FAVORITE: Really hard to handicap. It’s a young league, and all four have been starters who have been up-and-down this season.

COACH OF THE YEAR
Cliff Ellis, Coastal Carolina
FAVORITE: I’m not going to even bother to list anyone else. Ellis’ team was picked to finish eighth in the preseason, and it could finish with 26 victories.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Mantoris Robinson, Winthrop
John Williams, UNC Asheville
Cruz Daniels, High Point
FAVORITE: Robinson is the reigning winner, but Williams and Daniels both put up pretty block numbers. Could be an interesting race.