We’re breaking down the 2010 list of FCS vs. FBS games this season, 89 of them in total. Last season, only four FCS teams pulled off victories over their FBS counterparts, and all were CAA teams. Richmond beat Duke; William & Mary beat Virginia; New Hampshire topped Ball State; and Villanova knocked off Temple. All four teams advanced to the FCS playoffs.

I’ll break this year’s list into four distinct categories:
1. Who scheduled this bloodbath?
2. Sorry, no chance of an upset.
3. The FBS team better be on guard.
4. The best chance of an FCS team victory.

BLOODBATH GAMES

—Northern Colorado at Michigan State: MSU is considered a darkhorse in the Big Ten. UNC lost 49-3 to Kansas and 42-10 to Purdue in its previous two FBS games and has been near the bottom of the Big Sky since jumping from Division II.

—Idaho State at Georgia: In November no less. Yikes.

—Presbyterian at Clemson: Winless provisional D-I team heads to Death Valley. Yeah, this won’t be pretty.

—Georgia State at Alabama: I know, there’s the Bill Curry factor, but ... a first-year FCS program against the defending BCS champion?

—Indiana State at Cincinnati: The Bearcats, though breaking in a new coach, have advanced to a BCS game two years in a row. Indiana State has won one game since 2006.

—Western Illinois at Purdue: And that win came against Western Illinois last year.

—Austin Peay at Wisconsin: The Governors are just a few years removed from playing non-scholarship ball in the Pioneer League. Wisconsin is a Top 25 FBS outfit. Name your score.

—Texas Southern at Connecticut: TSU’s last two money games were a 42-0 loss at Rutgers last year and an 83(!!!)-10 loss to Arkansas State in 2008. UConn fans should get into the game for free, because this is a scrimmage.

THANKS FOR THE PAYCHECK GAMES
Offered without comment:
—Weber State at Boston College
—Weber State at Texas Tech
—Eastern Washington at Nevada
—Sacramento State at Stanford
—Portland State at Arizona State
—Portland State at Oregon
—Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
—Stony Brook at South Florida
—Charleston Southern at Hawaii
—Charleston Southern at Kentucky
—VMI at Virginia
—VMI at Army
—Presbyterian at Wake Forest
—James Madison at Virginia Tech
—Massachusetts at Michigan
—Towson at Indiana
—Rhode Island at Buffalo
—UC Davis at California
—North Dakota at Northern Illinois
—South Dakota at Central Florida
—South Dakota at Minnesota
—Southern Utah at Wyoming
—Southern Utah at San Jose State
—Hampton at Central Michigan
—Norfolk State at Rutgers
—Florida A&M at Miami
—Morgan State at Maryland
—Illinois State at Northwestern
—South Dakota State at Nebraska
—Missouri State at Kansas State
—North Dakota State at Kansas
—Youngstown State at Penn State
—Eastern Illinois at Iowa
—Tennessee-Martin at Tennessee
—Tennessee Tech at Arkansas
—Tennessee Tech at TCU
—SE Missouri State at Ball State
—Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee
—Appalachian State at Florida (OK, one comment—the Gators aren’t losing in the Swamp to an FCS team in November. No way, no how.)
—Wofford at Ohio
—Samford at Florida State (where are thou Bobby Bowden?)
—Furman at South Carolina
—Georgia Southern at Navy
—The Citadel at Arizona
—Western Carolina at North Carolina State
—McNeese State at Missouri
—McNeese State at LSU
—Stephen F. Austin at Texas A&M
—Texas State at Houston
—Central Arkansas at Tulsa
—Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane
—Southeastern Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe
—Nicholls State at San Diego State
—Nicholls State at Western Michigan
—Sam Houston State at Baylor
—Northwestern State at Air Force
—Alcorn State at Mississippi State
—Arkansas-Pine Bluff at UTEP

THE WATCH YOUR BACK GAMES
(i.e., the FCS team has an outside shot of the upset…)

—Northern Arizona at Arizona State: NAU has one of the subdivison’s top QBs in Michael Herrick, and the Sun Devils could be bored after opening against another Big Sky foe, Portland State. NAU has hung tight with ASU in the past.

—Montana State at Washington State: This is a fashionable pick for a can’t-miss upset, but I’m not buying it. Wazzu coach Paul Wulff is fighting for his job, and he’s coached in the Big Sky so he’s well aware that Montana State is a dangerous opponent. This will be close, but the Cougs will win.

—William & Mary at North Carolina: This game comes too late in the season for the Tribe to be considered anything close to a favorite. By then, the Tar Heels’ offense should be humming, and the UNC defense will make life miserable on the Tribe.

—Richmond at Virginia: You have to put this on the list just because W&M won in Charlottesville last season. But I really don’t think Mike London is losing to his old team, one that’s replacing a ton of firepower from last season. This won’t be a blowout, but Virginia should win.

—New Hampshire at Pittsburgh: Pitt is considered a favorite to win the Big East, and on paper, this game shouldn’t be close. But UNH has won five straight against FBS schools, so out of respect, I’m putting this game in this category.

—Maine at Syracuse: Rob Moore isn’t walking through that door any time soon. This game comes a week after the Orange travel to Seattle to chase Jake Locker all over the field at Washington. I smell trap.

—Cal Poly at Fresno State: The Mustangs have the history. They’ve beaten San Diego State twice and had Wisconsin dead to rights a couple of years back, if it wasn’t for some faulty extra-point kicking.

—UC Davis at San Jose State: I just have a sneaky feeling that the Aggies can hang with the Spartans.

—South Carolina State at Georgia Tech: Again, the Bulldogs are taking a major step up in class, but the Yellow Jackets had a lot of trouble with a middle-of-the-pack Big South team a couple of years back, beating Gardner-Webb 10-7 at home. Georgia Tech should out-class the Bulldogs, but you never know.

—Jacksonville State at Mississippi: The Gamecocks gave Florida State a ton of trouble in Tallahassee last season. Ryan Perrilloux is gone, but that tough JSU defense is back mostly intact.

—Eastern Kentucky at Louisville: EKU is a traditional contender in the OVC, and Louisville is undergoing a major rebuilding project.

—Colgate at Syracuse: At this point, I just don’t think Syracuse is very good, which is why the Orange keeps showing up here.

—Grambling vs. Louisiana Tech in Shreveport: The Tigers will probably have the crowd on their side in this neutral-site game.

—Prairie View at Southern Mississippi: The Panthers nearly upset New Mexico State last season and have a lot of NFL caliber players on their defense.

BEST UPSET CHANCES
That leaves us with five games, the best chances for the FCS team to pull an upset, in no particular order:

—Liberty at Ball State
The Flames have been competitive in every money game they’ve played under Danny Rocco, losing by 20 at Wake Forest, by 13 at West Virginia and by one at Toledo. It’s that last game that leads me to believe LU has a fairly good shot at knocking off the Cardinals. The last time LU played a MAC school, it led Toledo by 12 points in the fourth quarter before succumbing to the Rockets’ ground game down the stretch. Ball State is still rebuilding after its 11-win season in 2008, and the Cardinals lost at home to New Hampshire last season. In my mind, this is a true 50-50 game.

—Villanova at Temple
Yes, Temple is improved. Yes, Al Golden should be on the short list for most coaching vacancies. Yes, Temple is coming off a bowl trip. But Villanova is the top team in FCS for a reason, and the defending national champions beat the Owls last season. There’s no reason to think it can’t happen again. Should be a fantastic game.

—Northern Iowa at Iowa State
UNI missed the playoffs last season, but in the opener, if you’ll remember, Iowa had to block two field goals in the final seconds to escape with a 17-16 win over the Panthers. Iowa went to the Orange Bowl. Iowa State is nowhere near a BCS caliber team, and UNI beat the Cyclones the last time the teams played in Ames.

—Southern Illinois at Illinois
SIU beat Indiana in 2006, lost by three at Marshall last season and lost by six at Western Michigan in 2005. So the Salukis have no problems competing with lower-echelon FBS teams. Illinois is a mess right now. Though the Salukis are rebuilding their defense, there’s no doubt they have a shot to compete in this one, if not win it.

—Elon at Duke
In early-season games, quarterback play is key. The Phoenix has an experienced veteran in Scott Riddle under center. Duke is breaking in a new QB. The Blue Devils have also struggled against lower-level competition at home, losing twice to Richmond in the last four seasons. At the very least, expect this one to be extremely competitive.