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Friday, February 27, 2009

Final scenarios; All-Big South time

Five games remain on the Big South men’s basketball schedule, and the conference tournament picture is taking shape. Saturday’s schedule:

Liberty at Radford
Coastal Carolina at Winthrop
Charleston Southern at Gardner-Webb
UNC Asheville at Presbyterian
VMI at High Point

Now to the seedings:

1. Radford (15-2)—clinched.

2. VMI (12-5)—clinched.

3. Liberty (11-6)
  Will be No. 3 with: a) a win OR b) a UNC Asheville loss OR c) a loss and a UNC Asheville win and if Winthrop wins and Gardner-Webb loses Saturday, moving Winthrop alone into fifth place in the league standings. Liberty split with Winthrop this season; UNC Asheville was swept by Winthrop.
  Will be No. 4 with: a loss, a UNC Asheville win and a Gardner-Webb win

4. UNC Asheville (10-7)—see above

t5. Winthrop (8-9)
  Will be No. 5 with a) a win and a Gardner-Webb loss OR b) a win and a Gardner-Webb win and a Presbyterian win, forcing a three-way tie for fifth at 9-9. Winthrop wins the three-way tiebreaker in that scenario because it owns a 3-1 record against the other two teams.

t5. Gardner-Webb (8-9)
  Will be the No. 5 with a) a win and a Presbyterian loss OR b) a Winthrop loss. If in a three-way tie with Winthrop and Presbyterian, it’s the No. 6 seed.

t5. Presbyterian (8-9)—ineligible for league tournament

7. Coastal Carolina (5-12)—has clinched a tournament spot because at worst, it finishes in a three-way tie with High Point and Charleston Southern at 5-13. In that scenario, Charleston Southern would claim the No. 7 seed (3-1 in the three-team group), Coastal would be the No. 8 (2-2) and High Point (1-3) would be out. Coastal clinches the No. 7 seed with a win. If in a tie at 5-13 with just CSU, Coastal would be the eight and CSU would be the seven. If in a tie at 5-13 with just High Point, Coastal would be the No. 7 and High Point would be the No. 8 because Coastal swept High Point.

t8. High Point, Charleston Southern (4-13)—High Point cannot finish in a three-way tie with Coastal and CSU and make the tournament. If all three bottom teams win, Charleston Southern would be the odd team out because High Point would win a 5-13 tiebreaker with CSU because of its win against VMI Saturday. If High Point and Charleston Southern tie at 4-14, High Point will get the nod because the only team that would help CSU win the tiebreaker is Presbyterian, and PC will not be able to finish ahead of Gardner-Webb in any scenario if GWU beats CSU Saturday.

So in simpler terms, CSU CANNOT win in a straight-up tie with High Point.

****

OK, so on to the all-conference ballots, which were distributed today. I’ll post my picks on Monday after everyone’s choices are in. Here’s a quick handicap of the awards:

PLAYER OF THE YEAR
The favorite: Radford’s Artsiom Parakhouski. The big fella has been nearly unguardable during conference play, and he’s been the major difference maker for a Radford team that improved from seventh place to league champion in just one yar.

Darkhorses:

* Liberty’s Seth Curry, the nation’s leading freshman scorer and the player who has brought more buzz to Big South basketball this season than anyone in the league.

* VMI’s Chavis Holmes, the conference’s leading scorer. He’ll be penalized, though, for VMI’s up-tempo system. If Reggie Williams couldn’t win POY after leading the nation in scoring in back-to-back seasons, I don’t see any way Holmes wins the award.

* Coastal Carolina’s Joseph Harris, one of the league’s most dynamic post presences, he’s got 10 straight double-doubles and has double-doubles in 13 of his last 14 games. He’s threatening the Big South’s season rebounding average mark. And he’s only 6-5.

FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR

Um, Seth Curry. Gardner-Webb’s Joshua Henley has been a nice story, a 6-4 post leading the country in freshman rebounding. But Curry’s grip on this award is quite secure.

COACH OF THE YEAR

The favorite: Normally, if a coach leads his team from seventh to first in the span of a year, he’s a lock for this award. I’m not sure that’s the case for Radford’s Brad Greenberg. This was a strange season in the Big South, with only a handful of teams returning much in the way of starters. Radford returned four and added the league’s best big man via a JUCO transfer. It would have been a major disappointment had that team finished any lower than second in the league. Though you could say Greenberg did a nice job guiding Radford from an underwhelming start to becoming a dominant Big South team. And Radford did SWEEP its league road games, which is quite the difficult thing to do.

Darkhorses:

* VMI’s Duggar Baucom. He lost the two-time national scoring champion and led VMI to its first 20-win season in three decades. Hard to ignore.

* Liberty’s Ritchie McKay. Won 20 games with a lineup featuring three freshmen. But that freshman class was expected to be outstanding, and McKay benefited from having the conference’s preseason player of the year at his disposal in Anthony Smith.

* UNC Asheville’s Eddie Biedenbach. When we found out Kenny George’s basketball career had essentially ended thanks to an infection that led to the partial amputation of his foot, everyone pushed UNCA back to the bottom of the Big South pack. All they had was a role player (Reid Augst) and an unheralded freshman class. But Augst turned into one of the Big South’s best players this season, and J.P. Primm, Chris Stephenson and Matt Dickey were all major finds in that freshman class. No one would have expected UNCA to have a chance at 11 conference wins before the season started.

* Presbyterian’s Gregg Nibert. Look, this was a program with NOTHING to play for but pride. No conference tournament. No postseason. Nothing. Yet PC beat two of the league’s top three teams (VMI and Liberty) and have a chance at finishing .500 in the league. And Nibert’s done it with a seven-man rotation. That should be applauded.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

The candidates: John Williams of UNC Asheville and Cruz Daniels of High Point are both excellent shot blockers, and Winthrop’s Mantoris Robinson is the league’s best on-ball defender. A tough choice indeed.

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