First, tonight’s lineups for the finale of a three-game set between Kinston and Lynchburg. The suddenly surging Indians have played themselves into playoff contention in the Southern Division. They open the day 2 ½ games behind Salem for the second playoff spot in the South. Winston-Salem was the first-half champion, so where the Dash finish in the standings is irrelevant. It’s basically a three-team division for playoff purposes.

Kinston (19-26)
Lucas Montero lf (.265-3 HR-30 RBIs)

Tim Fedroff cf (.286-4-29)

Cord Phelps 2b (.251-2-43)

Ole Sheldon 1b (.245-8-29)

Doug Pickens dh (.284-3-13)

Adam Davis 1b (.223-8-33)

Kyle Haines ss (.182-0-1)

Alex Castillo c (.249-2-23)

Roman Pena rf (.217-2-26)

Mike McGuire rhp (0-3, 5.67 ERA)

Lynchburg (19-26)
Chase d’Arnaud 2b (.287-3-21)

Josh Harrison 3b (.370-1-4)

Jordy Mercer ss (.244-7-61)

Jamie Romak rf (.250-3-8)

Kris Watts dh (.308-4-36)

Matt Hague 1b (.285-5-40)

Alex Presley lf (.244-3-32)

Eric Fryer c (.209-1-8)

Jose De Los Santos cf (.253-0-26)

Ronald Uviedo rhp (5-4, 3.31, 1 SV)

One roster move today, as RHP Ramon Aguero (1-0, 2.49) was promoted to Double-A Altoona. The Pirates reinstated RHP Chris Cullen (4-2, 4.31, 2 SV) from the disabled list to take Aguero’s spot. Also, LHP Paul Mildren was released Wednesday when Bryan Morris was reinstated from the suspended list. Mildren struggled this season, but he was one of the best guys in the clubhouse, and he’ll be missed in that regard.

Moving on …

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette recently released an updated Top 30 list of Pirates’ prospects. Pirates beat writer Dejan Kovacevic conferred with four top baseball executives within the Pirates’ organization to come up with the updated list. Baseball America produces a Top 30 list every spring, but by August, that list is outdated, especially considering how many trades the Pirates have made this season to bolster minor-league depth.

Here’s a link to Kovacevic’s list: The new Pirates top 30

I wanted to compare and contrast the two lists and explore why certain players have made jumps, and why some have fallen completely off the map.

Let’s first look at the players who have made the biggest jumps up:

Tony Sanchez
Position/Team: C/West Virginia
New rank: 6
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: Sanchez wasn’t ranked because he was Pittsburgh’s No. 1 pick in the 2009 draft. Thought to be a safe, low-priced pick, Sanchez was in State College for a week before moving to West Virginia, where he’s batting .347 with four home runs and 28 RBIs in just 101 at-bats. There’s a good chance Sanchez starts next season in Lynchburg, and he could rocket up the system quickly.

Starling Marte
Position/Team: OF/West Virginia
New rank: 7
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: Marte had a brief stint with the Baby Bucs before moving to Charleston, where he’s hit .320 with two homers and 23 RBIs. He just had a 22-game hit streak snapped and he’s stolen 17 bases in 35 games. He’s played center field every day since July 26. Marte was rated as the Pirates’ top international prospect before the season started, and he was last year’s Dominican Summer League MVP.

Chase d‘Arnaud
Position/Team: INF/Lynchburg
New rank: 11
Previous rank: 17
The reasoning: A South Atlantic League All-Star in the first half at West Virginia, d’Arnaud has a lot of tools. He’s probably the best overall shortstop prospect in the organization, but he’s learning his way around second base as well in the second half of the year. D’Arnaud is batting .287 since his callup to Lynchburg with three homers, 21 RBIs and six stolen bases. He’s also hit two triples and has a great eye, leading the Hillcats with a .400 on-base percentage.

Victor Black
Position/Team: RHP/State College
New rank: 12
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: Black was the Pirates’ sandwich pick in the 2009 draft, taken 49th overall out of Dallas Baptist. He hits 95 with his fastball and has a good slider and an improving changeup. Command is a question mark. So far at State College, Black has split time between the rotation and the bullpen. He’s 1-0 with a 4.19 ERA in nine appearances (four starts), with 20 strikeouts and 11 walks in 19 1/3 innings. He’s yet to allow a home run. Wouldn’t be surprised if he started next season in Lynchburg.

Rudy Owens
Position/Team: LHP/Lynchburg
New rank: 14
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: Total come out of nowhere guy. Owens blew through the South Atlantic League with 10 wins and a sub-2.00 ERA before being promoted to Lynchburg, where he hasn’t allowed a run in two starts yet. It’ll be interesting to see where he starts next year. The Pirates are tapering his innings, so he’s not getting as extended of a look at High-A pitching as he could be. Plus, early in the year, there are better prospects in High-A, so the Pirates may want to see what he can do in Lynchburg against those guys before moving him up.

Brooks Pounders
Position/Team: RHP/GCL Pirates
New rank: 16
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: Pittsburgh’s second-round pick in June, Pounders doesn’t throw terribly hard yet, but he’s a high-school pitcher with command of four pitches, which is rare. He’ll have plenty of time to grow into his body and develop more velocity. Pounders has made six appearances for the Baby Bucs (two starts), going 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA, with four walks and 15 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings.

Trent Stevenson
Position/Team: RHP/GCL Pirates
New rank: 17
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: Another 2009 draft pick, a seventh-rounder the Pirates signed to a $350,000 signing bonus. Pittsburgh went conservative early this season so it could get some value picks in the later rounds, and Stevenson fits that bill. A high-school pitcher from Brophy Prep in Phoenix (the rival of St. Mary’s, where Orioles farmhand Brian Matusz went to school), Stevenson is a big kid (6-6, 175) who has plenty of time to put on some muscle. He’s made just one relief appearance so far, pitching a perfect inning with a strikeout.

Quincy Latimore
Position/Team: LF/West Virginia
New rank: 19
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: The Pirates’ fourth-round pick in 2007, Latimore has impressed the front office with a breakout season in West Virginia. He’s batting .278 with 10 homers, 59 RBIs, 19 doubles and 10 triples. The OBP could stand to improve, as he’s drawn just 19 walks in 388 at-bats.

Evan Chambers
Position/Team: CF/State College
New rank: 20
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: The Pirates’ third-round pick in 2009, Chambers has had a slow start in State College, batting .217 with two homers and 12 RBIs in 115 at-bats. The strikeout rate is way high (46), but he shows decent patience (29 walks). His biggest problem has been adjusting to right-handed pitching. He’s batting .176 against RHP, .375 against LHP.

Diego Moreno
Position/Team: RHP/West Virginia
New rank: 28
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: Another international signee who pitched last year in the Venezuelan Summer League, Moreno has been strong since joining the Power pen in June. He’s 1-2 with a 1.55 ERA and four saves with 35 strikeouts in 29 innings. He’s been close to unhittable when he throws in the strike zone (eight hits), but he’s also walked 13.

Rogelio Noris
Position/Team:  LF/GCL Pirates
New rank: 30
Previous rank: NR
The reasoning: Another international signee, Noris is batting .301 with five home runs and 16 RBIs in just 83 at-bats in Bradenton, solid power for a 20-year-old Mexican who is just 6-2, 192. He homered in four straight games last week.

Now the players who have sunk the most:

Neil Walker
Position/Team: 3B/Indianapolis
New rank: 15
Previous rank: 6
The reasoning: A former first-round draft pick and Pittsburgh native, Walker just hasn’t proven he can hit at the AAA level. He’s batting .245 with 11 home runs and 52 RBIs and has a .294 OBP this season. The Pirates already have a light-hitting third baseman in Andy LaRoche, and a power-hitting third baseman (Pedro Alvarez) is shooting through the system. Walker didn’t do himself any favors with his comments last week in the Post-Gazette, where he openly wondered if he’d ever get a chance in the Pirates’ system because he wasn’t one of Neal Huntington’s “guys.”

Jarek Cunningham
Position/Team: 3B/State College
New rank: 22
Previous rank: 13
The reasoning: Cunningham’s fall is due completely to the torn ACL he suffered in spring training. The knee injury shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise, considering he suffered a major knee injury in high school. Doctors thought he had torn the ACL then, but after surgery, they found the ACL had reattached itself.

Jordy Mercer
Position/Team: SS/Lynchburg
New rank: 23
Previous rank: 15
The reasoning: A third-round pick in 2008, Mercer has been passed in the Pirate shortstop hierarchy by Chase d’Arnaud, though Mercer is still getting the majority of time at shortstop in Lynchburg. Mercer’s first full pro season has just been mediocre. He was projected as a shortstop with pop, but he’s only hit seven home runs this season. He’s driven in 61 runs but is batting just .244 for the season. He’s made 16 errors this season, but only 11 since the season’s first week, when he had five errors.

Quinton Miller
Position/Team: RHP/West Virginia
New rank: 24
Previous rank: 16
The reasoning: Miller is interesting. He’s been regarded as a project, a power arm in need of refining. He started the year in extended spring training, made a quick trip to State College and is now in the West Virginia rotation. He’s made eight starts, is 2-3 with a 5.59 ERA and is allowing a hit an inning. Add in 18 walks against just 24 strikeouts, and you can see why he’s fallen a bit. He’s still very young (won’t turn 20 until November), so there’s no need to give up on Miller yet.

Shelby Ford
Position/Team: 2B/Altoona
New rank: 25
Previous rank: 8
The reasoning: Ford has sunk like a rock thanks to a disastrous season in AAA where he hit .188 with four homers and 27 RBIs in 298 at-bats before being demoted to Altoona. A 2006 third-rounder, Ford turns 25 in December, so the clock is ticking. His final month in Altoona is crucial to his future with the organization.

Jeff Sues
Position/Team: RHP/Altoona
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 7
The reasoning: Just a testament to how poor the organization pitching depth was. Sues strikes people out (70 Ks in 74 IP), but he walks too many people. Basically a two-pitch pitcher with a hard but hittable fastball and a curveball he doesn’t throw enough.

Jamie Romak
Position/Team: OF/Lynchburg
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 11
The reasoning: Romak was a sub-.200 batter in his first season at Altoona, forcing the Pirates to demote him to Lynchburg to find his stroke. He barely got settled in before breaking a finger. Now, he’s batting cleanup for Lynchburg as the Pirates try to get him as many at-bats and see what he has left. He’s playing for his organizational life in the final month of the regular season.

Jimmy Barthmaier
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 12
The reasoning: Released after one appearance with Indianapolis in April.

Brian Friday
Position/Team: SS/Altoona
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 14
The reasoning: A 2007 third-round pick, Friday has proved to be average in every way in Altoona. He’s batting .263 with seven homers and 52 RBIs and he’s made 20 errors at short. The Pirates have better options lower in the system.

Ronald Uviedo
Position/Team: RHP/Lynchburg
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 18
The reasoning: Uviedo is still on the Pittsburgh 40-man roster, but injuries derailed his development. Right as he was about to get his chance in Altoona, he developed tendinitis in his throwing elbow, and he hasn’t been the same since.

Wesley Freeman
Position/Team: OF/GCL Pirates
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 20
The reasoning: Baseball America predicted he could turn into a five-tool talent, and he’s still only 19. But he hasn’t been able to hit at all in the GCL this season, which is not a good sign for a young guy with that much supposed upside. He’s batting .211 with three homers and nine RBIs and has struck out 39 times in 123 at-bats.

Steve Lerud
Position/Team: C/Altoona
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 21
The reasoning: Another 40-man roster guy, Lerud has struggled to a mediocre season in Altoona, hitting .249 with three home runs and 19 RBIs in 249 at-bats. The RBI totals are very disconcerting. He drove in 18 in just 47 games in Altoona last season. He was placed on the 40-man because the Pirates were concerned about organizational catching depth and didn’t want to lose him in the Rule 5 draft.

Evan Meek
Position/Team: RHP/Pittsburgh
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 22
The reasoning: Rule 5 guy promoted to the bigs.

Matt Hague
Position/Team: 1B/Lynchburg
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 23
The reasoning: Hague’s power simply hasn’t developed. He hit more home runs last year in 215 at-bats in Hickory (6) than he has this year in 369 at-bats in Lynchburg (5). He’s hit cleanup for nearly the entire season, and in the first half, he was in a great spot sandwiched between Pedro Alvarez and Miles Durham. Yet he just hasn’t found the power. Major league teams aren’t interested in first basemen who hit for average and little else. Fortunately for Hague, the Pirates don’t have a ton of first-base options in the system, so they’ll probably give him a chance to grow.

Jim Negrych
Position/Team: 2B/Altoona
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 24
The reasoning: Before getting hurt in a collision last month, Negrych struggled with his transition to second base, making 16 errors. He hit .370 in Lynchburg and .310 in Altoona last year, but that sunk to .272 this season. Because he has little power, he has to continue to hit for average to move up in the system. This year was a setback, for sure.

Romulo Sanchez
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 25
The reasoning: Traded early in the season to the Yankees’ organization.

Donnie Veal
Position/Team: LHP/Pittsburgh
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 26
The reasoning: Another Rule 5 guy in the bigs, currently injured.

Brian Bixler
Position/Team: INF/Indianapolis
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 27
The reasoning: Soon to turn 27, Bixler has all the makings of a “4A” player, a guy destined to either be a major-league backup for someone who shuttles between AAA and the bigs as an injury filler. He’s a strikeout machine—115 in 365 ABs in Indy and 18 (!!) in 25 at-bats in a cup of coffee in Pittsburgh.

Jason Jaramillo
Position/Team: C/Pittsburgh
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 28
The reasoning: Backup catcher in the bigs. Probably has reached his upside.

Justin Wilson
Position/Team: LHP/Lynchburg
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 29
The reasoning: Wilson looked like a guy who hadn’t pitched competitively in nearly a year when he started the year in Lynchburg, but he’s found his stride of late. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last seven starts.

Nelson Pereira
Position/Team: LHP/State College
New rank: NR
Previous rank: 30
The reasoning: Another Latin American signing, Pereira has had a non-descript start to his American career, going 3-3 with a 5.23 ERA in 10 appearances for the Spikes. One plus: He’s struck out 38 in 31 innings, but he’s been far too generous with the walks (17).

And those who have were rated just about right in the preseason:

No. 1 Pedro Alvarez (New rank: 1); No. 2 Andrew McCutchen (in bigs); No. 3 Jose Tabata (2); No. 4 Brad Lincoln (4); No. 5 Bryan Morris (9); No. 9. Daniel McCutchen (13); No. 10 Robbie Grossman (8); No. 19 Danny Moskos (21).

And finally, the organizational newcomers, and where they ranked with their old organizations:

Tim Alderson
Position/Team: RHP/Altoona
New rank: 3
Previous rank: 4 (San Francisco)
The reasoning: Traded straight up for Freddy Sanchez, Alderson is off to a great start in Altoona (2-0, 0.77 ERA in two starts, 7 K, 2 BB). Doesn’t turn 21 until November.

Gorkys Hernandez
Position/Team: OF/Altoona
New rank: 5
Previous rank: 4 (Atlanta)
The reasoning: Even with Andrew McCutchen firmly entrenched in center field in Pittsburgh for years to come, the Pirates like Hernandez’s above average speed, which plays out in the outfield and when he’s on the base paths (not a great SB guy but gets from first to third very well). Good line drive, gap-to-gap sort of hitter. Average has been a struggle all year in Altoona (.253). He’ll turn 22 next month, and will start 2009 in either Altoona or Indianapolis.

Jeff Locke
Position/Team: LHP/Lynchburg
New rank: 10
Previous rank: 7 (Atlanta)
The reasoning: Locke’s numbers aren’t great, but he’s adjusted in his last few starts to what the Pirates want him to work on. Command was a major issue in his last year and a half in the Braves organization, and he’s only walked more than two batters once since coming to Lynchburg.

Argenis Diaz
Position/Team: SS/Indianapolis
New rank: 18
Previous rank: 17 (Boston)
The reasoning: A defense-first shortstop, Diaz has struggled predictably to hit in Indy, batting just .214 in 56 at-bats. But the Pirates wanted him because of his outstanding defensive instincts. He’s never hit better than .288 in any of his pro stops.

Josh Harrison
Position/Team: INF/Lynchburg
New rank: 26
Previous rank: NR (Chicago Cubs)
The reasoning: The Pirates have to love what they see so far from this throw-in player in the Grabow/Gorzelanny trade to the Cubs. Harrison has a quick glove and a strong arm at first, he’s aggressive on the base paths and has a little pop to him. Probably projects as a second baseman down the line.

Nathan Adcock
Position/Team: RHP/Lynchburg
New rank: 27
Previous rank: 24 (Seattle)
The reasoning: His curveball rated as the best in the Seattle organization, which is good, because his fastball doesn’t have a ton of life. He’ll piggyback with Ronald Uviedo for the rest of the season in Lynchburg, as he’s shown some signs of tiring late in his first full-year in High-A. Getting out of that nightmare of a pitcher’s park in High Desert should do wonders for his confidence.

Eric Hacker
Position/Team: RHP/Indianapolis
New rank: 29
Previous rank: NR (New York Yankees)
The reasoning: Has been a pleasant surprise as a starter after coming over in a trade for Romulo Sanchez. Hacker is 5-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 15 starts since the trade, though he’s allowed more hits than innings pitches and walks too many people (31 in 84 1/3 IP).