Hoop thoughts, 2/8
Let’s start today with the AP Top 25 ballot:
1. Kansas
2. Syracuse
3. Kentucky
4. Villanova
5. Purdue
6. West Virginia
7. Duke
8. Georgetown
9. Kansas State
10. Tennessee
11. Wisconsin
12. Michigan State
13. Texas
14. BYU
15. Gonzaga
16. New Mexico
17. Ohio State
18. Temple
19. Butler
20. Northern Iowa
21. Vanderbilt
22. UNLV
23. Wake Forest
24. Cornell
25. Rhode Island
A closer look:
* Teams I have ranked that aren’t ranked in the actual poll—Wake Forest, Cornell, Rhode Island
* Teams I don’t have ranked that are ranked in the actual poll—Georgia Tech, Baylor, Pittsburgh
* Teams that are in the RPI Top 25 but aren’t in the AP Top 25—Rhode Island (#12),Wake Forest (#16), Texas A&M (#20).
* Teams that are ranked but aren’t in the RPI Top 25—Baylor (#28), UNLV (#31), Ohio State (#38).
A quick take on our local teams and their NCAA tournament chances:
VIRGINIA TECH (18-4, No. 64 in the RPI)
Still well on the outside looking in. The Hokies’ strength of schedule number is awful (#189) and they have only four chances left for RPI Top 50 wins—vs. Wake Forest next Tuesday; at Duke next Sunday; vs. Maryland Feb. 27 and at Georgia Tech in the March 6 regular-season finale. They’ll probably need to win those two home games to have any shot. And the other four games—at N.C. State, vs. Virginia, at Boston College and vs. N.C. State are all must-wins. If they get those four and split the four RPI top 50 games, that puts the Hokies at 11-5 at the ACC and safely in the field.
VIRGINIA (14-7, No. 94 in the RPI)
The Cavaliers will have a chance to play their way in, but the margin for error is very slim now. They get Maryland twice, Virginia Tech once more, Clemson on the road and Duke at home. They host Florida State and travel to Boston College. Reasonably, UVa can do no worse than 6-2 in that eight-game stretch to have a chance, and that’s a tall task. The Cavs would have to sweep the home games and steal road wins at Boston College and Virginia Tech. That would leave them with losses at Maryland and Clemson and at 11-5 in the ACC.
Moving on to the Big South now ... approaching the stretch run here, so let’s break down where the teams stand with three weeks of conference play left:
COASTAL CAROLINA (11-2)—games remaining: at High Point, at Radford, vs. Charleston Southern, vs. Liberty, vs. VMI
The road trip is key. If the Chanticleers win one of the two games and sweep their home games, they’ll be a near lock to host the tournament. A win at Radford would be huge, seeing as Radford won the first meeting in Conway.
RADFORD (9-4)—games remaining: vs. Charleston Southern, vs. Coastal Carolina, at Liberty, vs. Presbyterian, vs. Winthrop
If Radford wins out and Coastal loses twice (to Radford and say High Point), the Highlanders would host the conference tournament thanks to the season sweep of the Chanticleers. Coastal can pretty much clinch the league by winning that game Saturday. Should be interesting to watch.
WINTHROP (9-4)—games remaining: vs. Presbyterian, vs. Gardner-Webb, vs. UNC Asheville, at High Point, at Radford
The Eagles are the league’s hottest team, having gone 8-1 to negate a 1-3 league start. They’ll be favored to win the next three home games to get to 12-4 and could conceivably still host the league tournament if they win out and get some help in the form of a couple of Coastal losses.
LIBERTY (7-5)—games remaining: at UNC Asheville, at Gardner-Webb, vs. Radford, vs. High Point, at Coastal Carolina, at Charleston Southern
Five of Liberty’s seven Big South wins have come against the three worst teams in the conference. LU will probably have to get to at least 10 conference wins (and that may not even be enough) to host a league tournament game, and that would require a home sweep and one road win. Not an easy task.
UNC ASHEVILLE (7-6)—games remaining: vs. Liberty, vs. VMI, at Presbyterian, at Winthrop, vs. Gardner-Webb.
If the Bulldogs simply take care of business at home, they’ll get to 10 wins. Throw in a win at Presbyterian and that puts UNCA at 11 with a sweep of Liberty. Clearly, the LU-UNCA game Thursday will play a huge role in determining tournament seeding.
HIGH POINT (6-6)—games remaining: vs. Coastal Carolina, vs. Charleston Southern, at VMI, at Liberty, vs. Winthrop, vs. Presbyterian.
The Panthers have been excellent at home, only losing to VMI. But getting a home sweep in these final six games would require wins over both Coastal and Winthrop. Probably a better chance that HPU gets one of those two, beats CSU and Presby and splits the VMI-Liberty trip. That puts the Panthers at 10-8.
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (6-7)—games remaining: at Radford, at High Point, at Coastal Carolina, vs. VMI, vs. Liberty
CSU will be heavy underdogs in all three road games. Not a favorite to host a tournament game. That would require a couple of upsets on the road and a home sweep.
GARDNER-WEBB (3-9)—games remaining: vs. VMI, vs. Liberty, at Winthrop, at Presbyterian, at UNC Asheville.
If GWU beats VMI Thursday, the tournament field will pretty much be decided, even if the Bulldogs lose out the rest of the way. GWU will then have a 1 1/2 game lead and a series sweep of the Keydets. The only chance left for a road win for GWU will be at Presbyterian.
VMI (3-10)—games remaining: at Gardner-Webb, at UNC Asheville, vs. High Point, at Charleston Southern, at Coastal Carolina
The season basically comes down to Thursday in Boiling Springs. If the Keydets lose that game, I don’t see them winning another game the rest of the way.
****
And some quick thoughts on the LU women, who are hosting Gardner-Webb here in a few minutes.
* Gardner-Webb ranks seventh nationally in 3-point field-goal percentage. Liberty is seventh in 3-point field-goal percentage defense.
* Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in field-goal percentage defense.
* Gardner-Webb has put some Liberty-like beatings on the rest of the Big South recently. GWU’s last two victories were 80-39 at Presbyterian and 78-33 over Coastal Carolina.
* Liberty has won 10 straight since losing in Boiling Springs Jan. 2. I’d honestly be shocked if these weren’t the two teams playing next month for an NCAA tournament berth.
* Liberty’s Devon Brown is the Big South’s leading scorer at 17.0 points per game.
* No Jelena Antic again tonight for the Flames, as she continues to rest a stress condition in her foot.
* Gardner-Webb players are all wearing pink shoes tonight.
* Gardner-Webb’s Monique Hudson and Dominique Hudson are twins.
Posted by Chris Lang at 05:43 PM. Filed under: main •
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