Only three weeks left in the regular season now, so things are starting to come into focus. First, my thoughts on how what happened yesterday affected the playoff picture, conference by conference:

BIG SKY
Northern Arizona’s loss at Sacramento State pretty much eliminates the Lumberjacks. They still have to go to Weber State and Mississippi and host Eastern Washington. They’d have to win all three to get a sniff, as I just don’t think any 7-4 team will make it, regardless of how many FBS games it plays. Weber State will win out to get to 7-4, but it won’t matter. I still think Montana State wins out and gets to 8-3 to snag a playoff berth.

BIG SOUTH
The loss to Stony Brook at home is the sort of game that can send Gardner-Webb into a tailspin. The game at Coastal next week will be tough and I’m projecting a Chanticleer win there, and I’ve flipped my Liberty-GWU projection from last week based on the new information from yesterday. Now I think the Flames will run the table and get to 6-0 and 9-2, which will get Liberty into the playoff conversation, but not into the playoffs without some more help.

CAA
No real change in the playoff thinking, but Delaware is officially done after the home loss to JMU. The Hens would have to beat Villanova and Navy to make the playoff field. Not happening.

GREAT WEST
The whole league is eliminated now. UC Davis can finish no better than 7-4, and Cal Poly will not run the table to get to 8-3. Schedule is way too tough—at UC Davis, vs. South Dakota, at Weber State.

MEAC
No change here either. I thought Morgan State would beat Florida A&M, so that flips my FAMU projection to 9-2 rather than 8-3. Won’t matter. There’s nothing resembling a quality win on FAMU’s schedule, and the MEAC’s continual playoff failures don’t bode well for that league getting an at-large team. As my projections go, FAMU’s only win over a team with a winning record will be the Morgan State win, and I have the Bears finishing 6-5. No way no how does FAMU deserve to be in the playoffs, or even seriously in the conversation.

MVC
Nothing changes here. Northern Iowa will be favored to sweep its final three games—Youngstown State, Western Illinois, Illinois State—and get to 8-3 and grab a playoff bid.

NEC
Central Connecticut State will probably get to 10-1, but the only thing resembling a quality win on the schedule is the home win over league foe Albany. Not this year.

OVC
One-bid league this year. No chance that anyone but the champ will have an at-large profile.

PATRIOT
No change. I think Lafayette and Colgate both finish 9-2, but Colgate will have lost to both LC and Holy Cross; and Lafayette’s 9-2 will not hold up against Liberty’s 9-2 (head-to-head).

SOUTHERN
No change from last week. App State is in, folks. The Mountaineers need to go 2-1, so even if they lose at Elon, I don’t see them losing to either Chattanooga or Western Carolina. Furman was the last team with a decent chance to knock Armanti State off, and ASU thumped Furple yesterday.

SOUTHLAND
Stephen F. Austin’s loss to Texas State puts the Lumberjacks on notice. I still think they’ll lose at Southeast Louisiana, and while I now have the Lions projected for an 8-3 finish, they have two DII wins on the schedule, so they’re out. If SFA loses twice, it’s done. At 8-3, though, SFA will be a lock because of the wins over McNeese and Central Arkansas.

So, the updated bracket projection:

Northern Iowa at #1 William & Mary
Villanova at Appalachian State

South Dakota State at #4 Richmond
Holy Cross at New Hampshire

South Carolina State at #3 Elon
Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois

Stephen F. Austin at #2 Montana
Montana State at McNeese State