Now, the first question I’m sure people are going to ask, since I do cover Liberty, is “what are the Flames playoff chances?“

To which I say, in a word, bleak.

Liberty’s hopes are tied to several games involving the second or third place teams in the power leagues.

BIG SKY: Liberty needs to have Montana beat Montana State AND have Northern Arizona beat Eastern Washington next Saturday. Montana State is at home, on a winning streak, and is playing in a huge rivalry game. That’s a 50-50 game at best. Northern Arizona hosts Eastern Washington, and the Lumberjacks are notorious for flopping at the end of the season when they have nothing to play for. Eastern has everything to play for, but there’s a lot of pressure on the Eagles because it’s a simple “win and you’re in” game. But they did just wax a Southern Utah team that had been money in Cedar City this season, and when in doubt, you pick the team that has more to play for. I think Eastern will win this game. I’ve flipped my mindset on the Montana-Montana State game, because I think Montana will be much looser. The Griz will likely still earn a seed even if they lose this game, and Montana State will probably play a little tight. At 8-3, Eastern Washington will earn a playoff bid. Book that.

MISSOURI VALLEY: Look, South Dakota State isn’t going to lose to hapless Western Illinois, so let’s just wipe that thought out of our minds right now. SDSU is in. Book it. The Northern Iowa at Illinois State game is interesting, in as such that UNI hasn’t beaten anyone worth talking about this season, and now the Panthers go on the road in a must-win game against a team fighting for a winning season. Still, I think UNI will win this one and earn a bid.

SOUTHERN: Elon goes on the road against a dangerous Samford team after getting blasted at home by Appalachian State. Elon won’t make it at 8-3. There is nothing resembling a quality win on the schedule and the only two times the Phoenix have played someone decent this year, they’ve been blasted. That said, Elon is just the better team, and it will find a way to win this one. Elon is in.

And that, folks, is it. No more bids to be had. Richmond, William & Mary, New Hampshire and McNeese State are playoff locks heading into the final week. Now, if one of these swing games goes the other way, I think Liberty will get a long, hard look, and the Flames will likely make it (provided they beat Stony Brook, of course). But I’d put LU’s playoff chances at about 25-30 percent at best at this point. The Flames really needed Eastern Washington to lose Saturday. That was the swing game that would have eliminated the Eagles.

Updated bracket projection:

Holy Cross at #1 Villanova
Elon at South Carolina State

Stephen F. Austin at #4 William & Mary
New Hampshire at Appalachian State

South Dakota State at #3 Montana
Richmond at Northern Iowa

Eastern Illinois at #2 Southern Illinois
Eastern Washington at McNeese State