As we did last week, let’s take a conference-by-conference look at how Saturday’s games affected the playoff picture:

BIG SKY
Montana’s 12-10 squeaker at Idaho State was the stunner of the day and dropped the Grizzlies in my seeding, not to mention my TSN poll ballot. I don’t subscribe to the theory that you have to move a team up “just because it won.“ Montana won ugly against a majorly inferior team, while Villanova went on the road and beat the undefeated No. 1 team, and Southern Illinois destroyed Top-10 South Dakota State in Brookings. I’m voting for who I think is the BEST team, not just based on who is undefeated. Otherwise, Butler would be in the top 10, right? Anyway, nothing really changed Saturday to change my mind about the next two weeks of the season. I still think Eastern Washington splits games with Southern Utah and Northern Arizona, and that would eliminate the Eagles. I think Weber State’s four losses will be too much to overcome. And I think Montana State beats the Griz in Bozeman on Nov. 21.

BIG SOUTH
Liberty certainly didn’t hurt its cause Saturday, and wins by Lafayette and James Madison helped the Flames in a huge way. If Lafayette finishes 10-1 and wins the PL auto-bid, and the only loss was at home to Liberty, then the Flames will have a heck of an argument come selection Sunday.

CAA
No change here. Villanova, New Hampshire, Richmond and William & Mary are close to locks, and everyone else is out unless Delaware can beat both Villanova and Navy. Very unlikely.

MEAC
Florida A&M is the only realistic at-large candidate, and the Rattlers just won’t have the quality wins to make a case. FAMU will have only one win over a team with a winning record. Rattlers had their shot at earning their way in at South Carolina State. They just didn’t get it done.

MISSOURI VALLEY
Southern Illinois’ waxing of South Dakota State makes things pretty interesting. SDSU will more than likely finish 8-3—the Jackrabbits have games at Minnesota and at home versus Western Illinois. Northern Iowa will also probably finish 8-3. SDSU owns the head-to-head there with a 24-14 win in Brookings earlier this year. That would really be SDSU’s only quality win. Northern Iowa has zero quality wins on its schedule but has name recognition going for it. And this committee loves name recognition. As it stands, UNI’s best wins would be over six-win Missouri State and Youngstown State. This would be the test case. Would a third MVC team get in ahead of a 9-2 Liberty team that has a better win on its resume than any win UNI has? UNI is my last team in, because the committee loves power leagues, and it has proven it time and again.

OHIO VALLEY
No change. One-bid league, either Eastern Illinois or Eastern Kentucky. EIU is 5-1 in league with two winnable home games left (Tenn.-Martin, Tennessee State). Eastern Kentucky would have to win at Jacksonville State and have EIU lose one of the two to take the bid, since EKU won the head-to-head. Tennessee Tech is 4-2 and would need to win at Jacksonville State and vs. Murray State and have EIU lose twice and EKU lose to Jacksonville State. TTU can’t win a tiebreaker, since it lost to both EKU and EIU.

PATRIOT
One-bid league. The loser of the Holy Cross-Lafayette game would be 9-2 with no real quality non-conference wins save for Harvard, and I don’t think either team would beat out Liberty or Northern Iowa for a bid. Colgate’s done. Two losses in this league is a killer.

NORTHEAST
Central Connecticut’s loss to a Wagner team that’s already lost a home game to a Division III school ended any hopes of this league’s champion getting in.

SOUTHERN
Elon and Appalachian State will be fighting for a seed and the Southern Conference title. Both are in. Everyone else is done.

SOUTHLAND
Four teams are tied at 4-1 right now—Southeastern Louisiana, McNeese State, Texas State and Stephen F. Austin. The McNeese State-Texas State game is huge for LU fans, because a McNeese win (in Lake Charles) will end Texas State’s at-large hopes. SELA has no at-large hopes thanks to having two Division II wins. Most likely, McNeese and SFA still get in.

So my updated bracket:

Holy Cross/Lafayette at #1 Villanova
Northern Iowa at South Carolina State

South Dakota State at #4 Montana
Montana State at McNeese State

William & Mary at #3 Elon
Stephen F. Austin at Richmond

Eastern Illinois at #2 Southern Illinois
New Hampshire at Appalachian State