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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Presbyterian comments, first FCS playoff projection

Again, I can’t promote the Twitter feed enough. Follow for blog updates and in-game comments.

Let’s start today with comments from Presbyterian coach Harold Nichols regarding Saturday’s matchup at Liberty:

Opening comments, reviewing the VMI game

“I thought you’ve got to give credit to coach (Sparky) Woods and their football team. They came in and executed and made plays when they had to to win the game. And we didn’t. I knew going into the game that time of possession and stopping their running game and option attack would be a difficult task for a young football team, and it proved to be true. We had a hard time getting off the field. I was hoping to do a little better job on first down against them. Their fullback had a really good game. We had a hard time getting off blocks and we were missing tackles here and there. That kept drives alive for them. One thing that our football team has got to learn is that in the second half, when we had some opportunities to get back in the game, we had some critical errors on both sides of the ball. You can’t make those kinds of errors against any football team and expect to win.“

“There were some good things that happened in the game that we can continue to build on. Our three leading tacklers were three true freshmen. They’re learning on a big stage. The kids played hard and with good effort. But they’ve got to play smarter and be able to make plays to put us in a position to win a football game.“

“Going to Liberty this week will be a tough task for our football team. They’re a Top 25 team and I think their two losses have come to West Virginia and James Madison, which is an outstanding football program in itself. I imagine the atmosphere will be similar to what it was when we went to Old Dominion. That was a loud atmosphere. Liberty’s students will be involved in it. It’ll be a great college football game, a great college football atmosphere. We’re pressing on. We’re not pleased, obviously, with our record. But our young men are learning as we go. Hopefully we’ll be able to put four quarters together and give Liberty a football game.“

What’s been the most frustrating part of trying to keep the confidence level up with such a young team?

“It’s very frustrating for our football team. If there’s any good in losing games, it’s that our kids see where our margin for error is not very big. You’ve got to be able to make crucial plays at crucial times in the game. At times this year, we’ve been able to. At other times, we haven’t. As a result, we haven’t been able to secure a win. This is a journey we’re all going on. I’ve been here for 10 months now, trying to build a program here against quality opponents. It’s a difficult task, but it’s one we’re committed to doing and we’re moving forward and making progress. It’s been a learning experience for all of us. We’re playing a lot of young people and trying to put people in a position to be successful on the field. It’ll take some time. But I’ve been pleased with the kids’ attitude and their effort. I don’t think there’s been a situation this year where they’ve quit or lost focus or lost their drive to be successful. I don’t think it’s anything like that. I’ve got men of character here at PC and we’ll all get on the bus and show up there at 3:30 and hopefully give them a football game.“

On the QB battle between Brandon Miley and Tim Webb

“Brandon’s struggling a little bit taking care of the football. We made a change Saturday in the game and Tim played the end of the second quarter and the second half. We’re trying to stabilize the situation for us offensively. Tim came in playing pretty well at the end of the game, made some throws and moved the football team. I’m hoping to make a decision this week to who will be the starter. I’ve said all along I feel like I’ve got two kids that can play the position. Tim, being a senior, brought some leadership to the football team there on Saturday. We’ll make a decision this week on who’s going to play this weekend.“

What kind of effort level do you expect from Liberty, considering what happened last season in Clinton?

“I’m sure that’s what Coach Rocco will use with his players in order for them to focus in on playing an 0-7 football team at home. I don’t think you can compare year to year. Totally different scenario. Different coaching staff. We don’t have a lot of players who are playing who were involved in that game. I’ve got 50 or 60 freshmen or redshirt freshmen who are competing on our football team. So it’s a totally different scenario. But I’m sure Coach Rocco will use that with his players to try to get them focused to play, and I’d do the same thing if I was in his shoes. I don’t think you can compare year to year.“

On RB Trandon Dendy

“Saturday’s football game was a little unique because we got down early and had to throw the ball a little bit more than I was hoping. So it kind of took the ball out of his hands to a certain degree. Trandon is a good back. He has the propensity to break tackles, and he’s got a low center of gravity, so he’s hard to get a good hit on. He’s been very productive for us all year. For us to be successful up there Saturday, he’s going to have to play well, no doubt about it. He’s been a workhorse for us there in the backfield.“

PC playing with nothing to lose?

“As far as pressure goes, the only pressure is the pressure you put on yourself. The expectations at PC right now aren’t great. Every other coach in our conference warns their team of looking past PC, and the level of respect for our football team probably isn’t the greatest around the conference. And it shouldn’t be. We’re just trying to build a program and do it the right way and to have some consistency and some stability. We’re not playing a Division II schedule any more. We’re playing in the Big South against very good opponents and right now our margin for error isn’t very big. So we’ve got to play well and execute in critical areas of the game in order to have a chance to beat guys.“

******

Moving on to my playoff prognostications. And let me make this clear: I’m projecting the rest of the season out and making picks based on what I think the FINAL standings will look like, not on what the standings CURRENTLY look like.

In fact, here are those projected standings for the eight auto-bid leagues, along with the Big South, Northeast and Great West, which figure to have teams in the at-large consideration mix:

BIG SKY
Montana…................7-1…......10-1
Montana State….......6-2….......8-3
Weber State…..........6-2….......7-4
Northern Arizona…....6-2….......7-4
Eastern Washington..5-3….......6-5
Northern Colorado…...2-6…......4-7
Portland State…........2-6….......3-8
Sacramento State…...2-6….......2-9
Idaho State….............0-8…......0-11

BIG SOUTH
Gardner-Webb….........5-1…......8-3
Liberty…....................5-1…......8-3
Coastal Carolina…......3-3…......5-6
Charleston Southern….3-3….....5-6
Stony Brook….............3-3….....4-7
VMI….........................2-4…......4-7
Presbyterian….............0-6….....0-11

CAA NORTH
New Hampshire….........6-2…......9-2
Massachusetts…..........5-3…......7-4
Maine…........................4-4…......5-6
Hofstra…......................2-6….......4-7
Northeastern…..............2-6…......2-9
Rhode Island…..............1-7…......2-9
CAA SOUTH
William & Mary…...........7-1…......10-1
Richmond…...................7-1…......10-1
Villanova….....................6-2….......9-2
Delaware….....................5-3…......7-4
James Madison…...........2-6….......4-7
Towson….......................1-7….......2-9

GREAT WEST
UC Davis….....................3-1….......7-4
Cal Poly…......................3-1….......6-5
Southern Utah…..............2-2….......6-5
South Dakota…...............1-3….......4-6
North Dakota…................1-3….......4-7

MEAC
South Carolina State….....8-0…........10-1
Florida A&M….................6-2….........8-3
Morgan State…................5-3…........7-4
North Carolina A&T…........4-4…........6-5
Delaware State…..............4-4…........4-7
Norfolk State….................3-5….........5-6
Hampton….......................3-5….........5-6
Bethune-Cookman….........2-6….........3-8
Howard….........................1-7….........3-8

MISSOURI VALLEY
South Dakota State….......8-0…..........9-2
Southern Illinois….............7-1….........9-2
Northern Iowa…................6-2…..........8-3
Missouri State…...............5-3….........7-4
Youngstown State…..........3-5…........5-6
Illinois State…...................3-5…........4-7
North Dakota State….........3-5…........4-7
Indiana State…..................1-7…........1-10
Western Illinois…...............0-8…........1-10

NORTHEAST
Central Connecticut State….8-0…........10-1
Albany…............................7-1….........8-3
Bryant….............................5-3….........6-5
Wagner…............................4-4…........5-6
Monmouth….......................4-4….........5-6
Robert Morris…...................3-5….........3-8
St. Francis….......................2-6….........3-8
Sacred Heart…....................2-6….........2-8
Duquesne….........................1-7….........2-9

OHIO VALLEY
Eastern Illinois…..................7-1…..........9-2
Jacksonville State….............6-1…..........8-3
Eastern Kentucky….............5-3…..........6-5
Tennessee State…...............4-3…..........5-6
Tennessee Tech…................4-4…..........5-6
Austin Peay…......................4-4…..........5-6
Tennessee-Martin…..............3-5…..........4-7
Murray State….....................1-7…..........2-9
SE Missouri State….............1-7…...........2-9

PATRIOT
Holy Cross….......................6-0…...........10-1
Lafayette…..........................5-1…...........9-2
Colgate…............................4-2…...........9-2
Fordham…..........................3-3…...........6-5
Lehigh….............................2-4…............2-9
Bucknell…...........................1-6…............3-8
Georgetown…......................0-7….............0-11

SOUTHERN
Elon…................................8-0…............10-1
Appalachian State…............7-1….............8-3
Georgia Southern….............5-3….............6-5
Chattanooga…....................4-4….............6-5
Furman…...........................4-4….............5-6
The Citadel….....................3-5…..............5-6
Samford….........................2-6…...............4-7
Wofford…..........................2-6…...............3-8
Western Carolina…............1-7…...............1-10

SOUTHLAND
Stephen F. Austin…...........6-1…..............9-2
McNeese State…...............6-1…..............9-2
Central Arkansas…............5-2…..............9-3
Southeastern Louisiana…....5-2….............7-4
Texas State…....................3-4….............5-6
Sam Houston State….........2-5….............5-7
Nicholls State….................1-6…..............2-7
Northwestern State…..........0-7…..............0-11

My projections include:
Montana State beating Montana in the season finale in Bozeman
William & Mary upsetting Richmond in Richmond in the season finale to nab the No. 1 overall seed
Stephen F. Austin losing a danger game at Southeastern Louisiana, costing them a seed and a home game
Massachusetts losing at Maine, dropping the Minutemen from the playoff picture
Gardner-Webb, a week after losing at Coastal Carolina, beating Liberty to snap the Flames’ 15-game Big South win streak
Central Connecticut knocking off Albany Saturday to end the Danes’ long Northeast win streak

Which leaves us with this bracket. Remember, regionalization is key, as is money. There’s no way Appalachian State and McNeese State will be sent on the road. Too much gate to be made in those venues. It’s not fair, but that’s how the NCAA plays.

Montana State (8-3) at #1 William & Mary (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Appalachian State (8-3)
——-
Stephen F. Austin (9-2) at #4 Richmond (10-1)
Holy Cross (10-1) at New Hampshire (9-2)
——-
Northern Iowa (8-3) at #3 Montana (10-1)
South Dakota State (9-2) at McNeese State (9-2)
——-
South Carolina State (10-1) at #2 Elon (10-1)
Eastern Illinois (9-2) at Southern Illinois (9-2)

LAST TEAM IN: Montana State

If the NCAA truly seeded the thing, this is how I’d have it 1-16.

#16 Holy Cross at #1 William & Mary
#9 Stephen F. Austin at #8 New Hampshire
#13 Northern Iowa at #4 Richmond
#12 South Carolina State at #5 South Dakota State
#11 Appalachian State at #6 Villanova
#14 Eastern Illinois at #3 Montana
#10 McNeese State at #7 Southern Illinois
#15 Montana State at #2 Elon

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