It’s the final act of the Al Groh farewell tour. There’s no doubt about it, and it’s not like this is shocking news or anything. Word won’t come down officially until early next week, but every indication from published reports across the state and country are that Groh’s nine-year run as Cavaliers coach will end following today’s game, no matter the outcome.

And for those who think a Virginia Tech victory is a foregone conclusion, well, there’s a bit of an X factor at play here. Groh may be unpopular with the Virginia fan base, but he recruited every one of the players on this Cavalier roster. I’d expect them to go guts out for him today.

A quick review of Groh’s biggest problems at UVa.:

1. He lost the state. Continually. And we’re not talking just on the field, where the Cavaliers struggled to compete with Virginia Tech, losing seven of the eight games in Groh’s tenure. But Virginia Tech owns the Commonwealth recruiting wise. Groh has burned a lot of recruiting bridges in the athlete-rich Tidewater area. Only nine UVa players hail from the greater Norfolk-Va. Beach-Hampton Roads-Chesapeake area, and none of them are consistent contributors. Meanwhile, Tech has pillaged the Tidewater for years, grabbing players like Tyrod Taylor, Greg Boone, Kam Chancellor and Dyrell Roberts, all of whom are key players on this Tech team. And when Groh has managed to snag a top Virginia recruit, he’s been a massive flop. Think Peter Lalich and J’Courtney Williams. The fact that Tech has owned UVa of late hasn’t helped in this regard. That’s why rivalry games matter.

2. Groh’s teams have dug early holes. This year’s team started 0-3 and lost to William & Mary. The Cavs went 1-3 last year with the only win coming over FCS foe Richmond. In 2006, the Hoos started 1-3. Early in his tenure here, Groh’s teams fared a bit better out of the gate. But the slow starts certainly have curtailed any enthusiasm from the fan base, and the empty seats at Scott Stadium speak volumes. The joint will be sold out today, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stands were 60-40 in favor of the Hokies.

3. Groh’s teams have been mainstays in non-New Year’s Day bowls, other than the 2008 trip to the Gator Bowl. When the Hoos have gone bowling, it’s been to Charlotte, Nashville and Boise. Frankly, the UVa brass thinks the football program can do better, and with the facilities and money the school provides, it’s hard to argue with that point.

So who might succeed Groh?

A lot of the prognosticators out there trot out the same tired list of former Groh assistants, like Mike London, Al Golden and Danny Rocco. Just one man’s opinion, but I think the school wants to move in an entirely different direction in that regard. I really don’t think Golden (Temple) or Rocco (Liberty) will be serious candidates. London isn’t a long-time Groh guy like the other two were, so he might be a different story. And his success at Richmond, with a mix of his own and former coach Dave Clawson’s players, makes him an attractive candidate.

Chris Peterson’s name comes up a lot, but would the Boise State coach want to leave a pretty cushy situation for a challenging one at UVa? The days of the five-year plan are long gone. You better show progress in year one or two or you’re going to be under some heat, especially at a place that’s starving for success like UVa. I wonder what will go through Peterson’s mind, though, if Boise State goes 12-0 and gets shut out of the BCS this season. Maybe he says, “well, if it’s going to be like this, I better go some place where I can have BCS access.“

Then again, Dan Hawkins felt that way when he left Boise State for Colorado, and that move has been fairly disastrous for Hawkins.

Tommy Tuberville is another interesting name, but Virginia would have to pay him, probably somewhere in the $3 million range. Would the Cavs turn south and look at Bud Foster? How would hiring a Hokie go over up here? It didn’t go well in reverse when former Cavalier Ricky Stokes took over the Tech basketball program.

Gut feeling: UVa looks at a high-level coordinator at a BCS school, a younger guy with the fire to take over a stumbling program and win over a skeptical fan base. It’s going to be as much of a PR job as it will be a coaching job. So the Cavs will need to find someone with charisma. The Tony Bennett basketball hiring kind of came out of nowhere, but in reality, it made sense. It was a clean break from an old regime with a young up-and-comer who had found success in a place that was a basketball wasteland before he got there (Washington State).

Some other game-related notes:

* In 1990, Virginia was No. 17 in the country and 8-2 heading into the Virginia Tech game. The Hokies were 5-5 and playing for nothing but pride. No bowl bid on the line. Nothing. Just the rivalry. In reality, Virginia was playing for nothing, too. Back in those days, bowls gave out bids as early as late October, and Virginia was assured of a spot in the Sugar Bowl. Tech won 38-13. My point: Take nothing for granted in these rivalry games.

* A representative of the Chick-Fil-A Bowl has been following Tech around ever since the Georgia Tech game, my colleague Nathan Warters tells me. He’s here today in the press box. The general consensus is that Tech will land in one of two bowls—the Chick-Fil-A or the Gator. A lot of it will depend on what Clemson does. The Tigers are currently losing to South Carolina, and if they lose again in the ACC Championship game, one would think that the Atlanta bowl would pass on Clemson, sending the Tigers to the Gator for the second straight year. If Clemson wins, dropping Georgia Tech out of the BCS, will the hometown Chick-Fil-A want the Yellow Jackets?

* Virginia better score if it wants to win today. In UVa’s last seven wins over Tech in the series, the Cavs have scored at least 32 points. I wouldn’t think a shootout would favor UVa today, and the Cavs have been susceptible to giving up some big rushing performances this year. TCU, Southern Miss, Georgia Tech and Miami all broke the 200-yard mark on the ground against Virginia. Tech’s Ryan Williams is averaging 123.2 yards per game on the ground and Tech is averaging 198.1 yards per game as a team rushing the football.

* Virginia Tech is 19-2 in November games since joining the ACC in 2004.

* In Tech’s 16-year bowl run, the Hokies are 94-6 when rushing for 200 or more yards.

* Tech coach Frank Beamer can tie Ohio State’s Jim Tressel for third in victories among active coaches with a win today (228).

* Today marks the last game for two local players at UVa.—Gretna’s Vic Hall and Heritage’s Chris Cook.