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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

The FCS 40: Teams 21-30

The first installment of this series can be found here: Teams 31-40

Again, the teams are listed in alphabetical order. The first true ranking will come out the week of Sept. 28. Teams 21-30 are fringe Top 25 teams, ones that have the potential to grow into something much more than just that.

ALBANY
2008 record: 9-3 (7-0 Northeast/1st)
Last postseason appearance: 2008 (beat Jacksonville 28-0 in Gridiron Classic)
Last postseason victory: Same
Starters returning (offense/defense): 7/7
Players to watch: RB David McCarty (1,852 yards, 13 TD); QB Vinny Esposito (60.3 comp%, 1,934 yards, 13 TD, 10 INT); WR Tim Bush (67 rec., 794 yards, 5 TD); LB Justin Brancaccio (91 tackles, 1 sack, 3 TFL, 2 PBU, 1 INT); S David Casale (74 tackles, 4 TFL, 7 PBU, 7 INT)
The skinny: The Great Danes were painfully close to a playoff berth last season. They lost by eight at New Hampshire and by 12 at UMass. If they win either of those games, they’re probably ranked in the top 16 and meet qualification for a “bridge” berth in the FCS playoffs. Instead, they settled for dominating the Northeast again, outscoring league foes 216-104. Only games against Central Connecticut and Sacred Heart were close. With so much offensive firepower returning, the Danes can once again play their way into the playoff conversation. This year’s out-of-league schedule features road games against Georgia Southern and Massachusetts and a home date with Maine. None of the three are unwinnable. Is this the year the Danes take the big step forward?

CENTRAL ARKANSAS
2008 record: 10-2 (6-1 Southland/1st)
Last postseason appearance: None
Last postseason victory: None
Starters returning (offense/defense): 6/9
Players to watch: RB Brent Grimes (879 yards, 18 TD); WR Willie Landers (44 rec., 735 yards, 7 TD); CB Anthony Gambles (50 tackles, 2 TFL, 12 PBU, 3 INT)
The skinny: Central Arkansas was the team that finished first in the Southland Conference last year, but the Bears weren’t the official league champion. Late in the season, the NCAA informed the Southland that if the league awarded UCA its conference championship trophy, then it would lose its bid to the FCS playoffs. That gaffe is part of the reason that Presbyterian has been told by the Big South that its games count in the standings in 2009 and 2010, but it is ineligible for the league championship in those years. The Bears lose QB Nathan Brown, who was fabulous as a senior (67.7 comp%, 3,206 yards, 31 TD, 4 INT), and top WR Eric Ware is gone. But the defense returns the top eight tacklers from a unit that improved in scoring defense by nearly six points from 2007. We really won’t know a whole lot about UCA until October. The schedule sets up with the Bears playing two FBS teams (Hawaii, Western Kentucky), followed by two non-DI teams (Glenville State, Missouri S&T).

EASTERN WASHINGTON
2008 record: 6-5 (5-3 Big Sky/t3rd)
Last postseason appearance: 2007 (lost to Appalachian State 38-35 in quarterfinals)
Last postseason victory: 2007 (beat McNeese State 44-15 in first round)
Starters returning (offense/defense): 8/7
Players to watch: QB Matt Nichols (61.0 comp%, 3,293 yards, 21 TD, 14 INT); WR Aaron Boyce (63 rec., 917 yards, 10 TD); LB Zach Johnson (96 tackles, 2 sacks, 8 1/2 TFL, 7 PBU, 1 INT)
The skinny: How motivated will the Eagles be this season? As of now, they’re still appealing an NCAA postseason ban levied for actions under previous coach Paul Wulff, now the head man at Washington State. Eastern has always been a tough out in the Big Sky because the Eagles play a physical brand of football. With only one FBS team on this year’s schedule (California), the Eagles will have a chance to get off to a better start than last year. The season will be decided Oct. 10-17, when the Eagles host Weber State before traveling to Montana. They’ll need at least a split there to contend for the Big Sky title and a playoff berth (if the NCAA lifts the ban).

GEORGIA SOUTHERN
2008 record: 6-5 (4-4 Southern/t4th)
Last postseason appearance: 2005 (lost to Texas State 50-35 in first round)
Last postseason victory: 2002 (beat Maine 31-7 in quarterfinals)
Starters returning (offense/defense): 7/6
Players to watch: RB Adam Urbano (304 yards, 7 TD); CB Carson Hill (43 tackles, 2 TFL, 10 PBU)
The skinny: This once proud program has gone eight years without a playoff victory. After experimenting with scrapping the triple-option offense that made Georgia Southern (and current Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson) famous, the Eagles switched back and have found some offensive swagger in the last two seasons, averaging more than 30 ppg in both years after slipping to 21.4 ppg in 2006. GSU had a weird season last year, winning all four of its SoCon road games but losing all four home games, three of those coming by a combined four points. The Eagles lose their top QB from a year ago, but much of the offensive line returns intact. This is the true wild card team in the SoCon. The Eagles could either be mediocre or stun everyone and compete with Appalachian State and Elon for the league crown.

GRAMBLING STATE
2008 record: 11-2 (7-0 SWAC/1st West)
Last postseason appearance: 1989 (lost to Stephen F. Austin 59-56 in first round)
Last postseason victory: None
Starters returning (offense/defense): 8/7
Players to watch: RB Cornelius Walker (686 yards, 4 TD); QB Greg Dillon (56.4 comp%, 1,242 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT; 676 rush yards, 3 TD); WR Kiare Thompson (22 rec., 293 yards, 5 TD).
The skinny: The Tigers went unbeaten last year agianst FCS competition, as their only losses were to FBS Nevada and Northwestern State. Much of the talent returns, especially in the run game. Grambling will likely dominate the SWAC again and be a Top 25 caliber team, but matching last season’s 11 victories might be tough. The schedule is enticing, with early games against MEAC power South Carolina State and FBS foes Northwestern State and Oklahoma State. The Oct. 3 game at Prairie View will likely decide who represents the SWAC West in the SWAC title game.

HOFSTRA
2008 record: 4-8 (2-6 CAA/4th North)
Last postseason appearance: 2001 (lost to Lehigh 27-24 in first round)
Last postseason victory: 2000 (beat Furman 31-24 in first round)
Starters returning (offense/defense): 9/9
Players to watch: QB Cory Christopher (66.8 comp%, 1,163 yards, 4 TD, 6 INT); RB Everette Benjamin (630 yards, 5 TD); WR Aaron Weaver (70 rec., 595 yards, 4 TD); SS Ray McDonough (56 tackles, 1 TFL, 7 PBU, 4 INT)
The skinny: The Pride were 7-4 in 2007 and expected to compete in the CAA North last season, but injuries ravaged Hofstra. The Pride lost two quarterbacks and four other offensive starters during the course of the season. FCS prognosticator Phil Steele picked the Pride to win the North this season. The man has stones, I’ll say that. This team will be much better as long as it can stay healthy, and all three tough North games—against Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts—are in Hempstead. At worst, Hofstra will finish with a winning record and be a fringe Top 25 team. At best, the Pride could be the surprise team in the CAA and compete for a playoff berth.

LIBERTY
2008 record: 10-2 (5-0 Big South/1st)
Last postseason appearance: None
Last postseason victory: None
Starters returning (offense/defense): 3/4
Players to watch: RB B.J. Hayes (194 yards, 1 TD); FS Chris Rocco (78 tackles, 7 PBU, 1 INT); LB Ian Childress (59 tackles, 3 1/2 sacks, 3 TFL, 2 PBU)
The skinny: Yes, the Flames lose just about everybody of consequence from last year’s Big South title team, including RB Rashad Jennings, QB Brock Smith, WRs Dominic Bolden and Jonathan Crawford and LB Nick Hursky. But Flames coach Danny Rocco has plugged unknown players into important roles in the past (LB Chad Brown and S Larry Claiborne come to mind), showing how deep the program has become in his four years in Lynchburg. A playoff berth will be tough to fight for this year, as the early schedule features games against West Virginia, Lafayette and James Madison, not exactly the easiest road for an inexperienced team. The two toughest games in league play are late—at Gardner-Webb and Stony Brook—and this group should be seasoned by then. An interesting note from Phil Steele’s FCS preview magazine: “Even though they are the least experienced team in the Big South, two of my five sets of power ratings call for them to go 6-0 this year in league play,“ he writes.

MASSACHUSETTS
2008 record: 7-5 (4-4 CAA/t3rd North)
Last postseason appearance: 2007 (lost to Southern Illinois 34-27 in quarterfinals)
Last postseason victory: 2007 (beat Fordham 49-35 in first round)
Starters returning (offense/defense): 7/6
Players to watch: RB Tony Nelson (1,325 yards, 12 TD); WR Victor Cruz (71 rec., 1,064 yards, 6 TD); WR Jeremy Horne (50 rec., 895 yards, 8 TD); FS Jeromy Miles (104 tackles, 5 TFL, 2 PBU, 3 INT)
The skinny: QB Liam Coen (2,749 yards, 24 TD) is gone, but whomever wins the starting quarterback gig this year will have some talented receivers to throw the ball to. Top TB Tony Nelson is back, too, so the QB will have some time to develop. UMass struggled defensively last season. The Minutemen held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game for three straight years (2005-07), but that number skyrocketed to 26.8 ppg last season. UMass also turned the ball over too much, finshing minus-7 in turnover margin. Still, the CAA North seems a bit more wide open than it has been in recent years, and New Hampshire must travel to Amherst this season.

MONTANA STATE
2008 record: 7-5 (5-3 Big Sky/t3rd)
Last postseason appearance: 2006 (lost to Appalachain State 38-17 in quarterfinals)
Last postseason victory: 2006 (beat Furman 31-13 in first round)
Starters returning (offense/defense): 5/7
Players to watch: QB Cody Kempt (51.2 comp%, 1,316 yards, 9 TD, 12 INT); WR DeSean Thomas (24 rec., 407 yards, 4 TD); LB Chase Gazzerro (62 tackles, 4 1/2 sacks, 6 1/2 TFL, 6 PBU, 1 INT)
The skinny: Montana State has quietly put together seven straight winning seasons, making the playoffs in three of those years. Last year, the Bobcats scheduled themselves out of the playoffs, facing two FBS teams, a non DI and a transitional DI in the non-conference season. The schedule is similar this year, with an opener at Michigan State and games against Dixie (Utah) State and transitional South Dakota on the slate. MSU’s whole season hinges on replacing running back Demetrius Crawford (1,314 yards, 8 TD) and the improvement of QB Cody Kempt, who barely completed 50 percent of his passes and threw more interceptions than touchdowns a year ago. MSU was also an awful minus-10 in turnovers.

UC DAVIS
2008 record: 5-7 (2-1 Great West/2nd)
Last postseason appearance: None
Last postseason victory: None
Starters returning (offense/defense): 8/7
Players to watch: QB Greg Denham (65.6 comp%, 3,478 yards, 27 TD, 16 INT); RB Joe Trombetta (547 yards, 3 TD); WR Bakari Grant (61 rec., 720 yards, 8 TD); LB Mike Morales (72 tackles, 9 TFL, 3 PBU, 2 INT)
The skinny: If the Aggies can navigate a brutal first five weeks, they have a chance to be a Top-25 caliber team. Check out this schedule—vs. Fresno State; at Montana; Bye week; vs. Western Oregon; at Boise State. Yikes. UC Davis will probably go 1-3 against that slate, but it gave Montana fits last season at Washington-Grizzly, so who knows? QB Greg Denham won the starting job last year and excelled, throwing for more than 3,000 yards. The key game is Nov. 7, when the Aggies host rebuilding Cal Poly in what should decide the Great West championship.

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