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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

The FCS 40: The top 10

The first three parts of this series:

Teams 31-40

Teams 21-30

Teams 11-20

Now, the Top 10:

APPALACHIAN STATE
2009 record: 11-3, 8-0 Southern, 1st
Last postseason appearance: 2009
Last postseason victory: 2009
Starters returning (offense/defense): 9/7
Players to watch: RB Devon Moore (1,374 yards, 19 TD), WR Brian Quick (61 rec., 982 yards, 4 TD); LB D.J. Smith (137 tackles, 2 sacks, 12 1/2 TFL, 8 PBU, 1 INT).
The skinny: DeAndre Presley or Jamal Jackson? Whomever wins the starting quarterback job in Boone will have a heck of a task, replacing one of the FCS’ all-time greats in Armanti Edwards. The Mountaineers have won at least 11 games in each of the last five seasons, so don’t expect the word “rebuilding” to float around Boone. With a top-flight tailback in Moore returning, along with a big-time linebacker in Smith, App State should once again be near the top of the SoCon standings. The Mountaineers have won 20 straight conference games, their last loss in league play coming in 2007 at home against Georgia Southern. The schedule is manageable, as top challenger Elon must travel to Boone. The “money” game at Florida is in the final week of the regular season. By then, the Mountaineers should have another national seed in the FCS playoffs wrapped up.

ELON
2009 record: 9-3, 7-1 Southern, 2nd
Last postseason appearance: 2009
Last postseason victory: None
Starters returning (offense/defense): 7/6
Players to watch: QB Scott Riddle (64.9 comp%, 3,345 yards, 23 TD, 7 INT), RB Jamal Shuman (677 yards, 3 TD), LB Joshua Jones (89 tackles, 2 sacks, 5 TFL, 3 PBU, 2 INT)
The skinny: The problem with having a receiver as good as Terrell Hudgins is that it’s hard for others to find touches in the offense. Hudgins scored 16 touchdowns last season, and the other 10 players on the team that caught passes combined for nine touchdowns. Lance Camp and Sean Jeffcoat will be the major candidates to replace Hudgins, who finished second in the Walter Payton Award voting last season. Riddle is back for his senior season after throwing for more than 3,000 yards last year. Defensively, the Phoenix held opponents to 13.2 points per game last season, a huge improvement considering in 2007 teams scored 30.4 ppg against Elon. The Phoenix travel to Appalachian State but host Furman and Wofford. They should again be in the hunt for the SoCon title.

JAMES MADISON
2009 record: 6-5, 4-4 CAA South, t4th
Last postseason appearance: 2008
Last postseason victory: 2008
Starters returning (offense/defense): 6/7
Players to watch: QB Justin Thorpe (654 rush yards, 5 TD, 56.6 comp%, 1,260 yards, 6 TD, 9 INT), QB Drew Dudzik (56.0 comp%, 472 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT), RB Jamal Sullivan (451 yards, 4 TD), LB Pat Williams (87 tackles, 1 sack, 7 TFL, 2 PBU).
The skinny: Last season was an offensive disaster for the Dukes, who had averaged at least 32.4 points per game for four straight seasons before dropping off to 22.0 ppg last year. Coach Mickey Matthews never made a commitment to either Thorpe or Dudzik at QB, and that seemed to hamstring the team. After spring ball, Dudzik was named the starter. The Dukes played well enough defensively to stay in most games, allowing just 18.9 ppg. But in a two-week stretch against Villanova and William & Mary, the Dukes scored a combined three points. JMU must replace DL Arthur Moats, who had 11 sacks last season. If the Dukes find early offensive stability, they could contend for a playoff spot and the CAA title. The early-season schedule is tough. JMU opens at home against Morehead State before traveling to Virginia Tech and hosting Liberty and Delaware.

MONTANA
2009 record: 14-1, 8-0 Big Sky, 1st
Last postseason appearance: 2009
Last postseason victory: 2009
Starters returning (offense/defense): 5/5
Players to watch: QB Andrew Selle (62.9 comp%, 3,043 yards, 28 TD, 6 INT), RB Chase Reynolds (1,502 yards, 22 TD), WR Jabin Sambrano (31 rec., 512 yards, 5 TD), SS Erik Stoll (98 tackles, 1 1/2 TFL, 4 PBU, 2 INT).
The skinny: After a second straight trip to the FCS championship game, Montana must replace its head coach—Bobby Hauck, who left for UNLV—and top receiver Marc Mariani, who had nearly 1,500 yards and 13 TDs. The offensive line is also an area of concern. But this is a program that never rebuilds. In the last four years, the Grizzlies are 51-6, and they’ve lost key players during that time and simply reloaded. Montana was plus-18 in turnover margin last year, the third straight year UM was at least plus-10 in the category. With Selle and Reynolds back, the offense should hum along as usual. If the Griz survive an early stretch with games at Cal Poly and Eastern Washington, they should be primed to claim another Big Sky title.

NORTHERN IOWA
2009 record: 7-4, 5-3 Missouri Valley, 3rd
Last postseason appearance: 2008
Last postseason victory: 2008
Starters returning (offense/defense): 3/6
Players to watch: RB Carlos Anderson (541 yards, 4 TD), LB Jamar Thompson (86 tackles 2 TFL, 3 PBU, 2 INT), K Billy Hallgren (13-17 FG, 42 long, 43-43 XP).
The skinny: The Panthers had a third straight playoff berth in their grasp before losing on a late touchdown at Illinois State. They lose QB Pat Grace and top RB Derrick Law, but the Panthers still have enough talent to compete for the MVC crown. They’ll know early how much they have reloaded. They face Stephen F. Austin at home in their second game, travel to Iowa State, host South Dakota State and travel to Southern Illinois. If they survive that stretch, the back half of the schedule is conducive to a title run.

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
2009 record: 10-2, 8-0 MEAC, 1st
Last postseason appearance: 2009
Last postseason victory: 1982
Starters returning (offense/defense): 8/6
Players to watch: QB Malcolm Long (64.5 comp%, 2,502 yards, 20 TD, 10 INT), LB David Erby (82, 4 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU), K Blake Erickson (14-17 FG, 44 long, 45-46 XP)
The skinny: It would be nice to see what the Bulldogs could do in the playoffs if they didn’t draw Appalachian State at the Rock in the first round. But such is the reality of a playoff field that’s paired regionally. The Bulldogs have won their last 19 MEAC games and with 14 starters returning, SCSU will be the favorite to return to the playoffs once again. The Bulldogs were stout defensively last season, allowing just 15.6 points and 255 yards per game. If anyone is going to knock SCSU off, it might be Florida A&M when the teams meet in Tallahassee Oct. 2. Hampton, the other top MEAC contender, visits Orangeburg Oct. 23. The Bulldogs open the season at Georgia Tech.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
2009 record: 11-2, 8-0 Missouri Valley, 1st
Last postseason appearance: 2009
Last postseason victory: 2009
Starters returning (offense/defense): 6/3
Players to watch: QB Chris Dieker (58.4 comp%, 1,326 yards, 10 TD, 5 INT), QB Paul McIntosh (67.2 comp%, 888 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT, 588 rush yards, 6 TD), WR Joe Allaria (52 rec., 697 yards, 4 TD), FS Mike McElroy (78 tackles, 7 TFL, 4 PBU, 7 INT).
The skinny: The Salukis have reached the playoffs in seven straight seasons and reached the semifinals in 2007, losing at home to Delaware. Dieker is back after missing a chunk of last season with a broken collarbone. SIU led the MVC in scoring offense last season thanks to a plus-17 turnover margin. The defense was even better, holding opponents to 15.9 ppg. The Salukis’ only losses last year were to Marshall in the opener and to William & Mary at home in the playoffs. The Salukis add a Pitt transfer at running back. SIU opens a new 15,000-seat stadium this season, and the Salukis—while having some holes to fill—should be in the thick of the MVC title race again. The key stretch is in October, when SIU travels to Illinois State and hosts Northern Iowa and South Dakota State.

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
2009 record: 10-3, 6-1 Southland, t1st
Last postseason appearance: 2009
Last postseason victory: 2009
Starters returning (offense/defense): 5/8
Players to watch: QB Jeremy Moses (68.0 comp%, 4,124 yards, 40 TD, 21 INT), RB Romonte Hampton (324 yards, 4 TD), WR Gralyn Crawford (51 rec., 785 yards, 7 TD), LB Devin Ducote (137 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 11 TFL, 3 PBU, 1 INT)
The skinny: After two years of terrible defense, the Lumberjacks shored up that side of the ball last season, a big reason why Stephen F. Austin came out of nowhere to tie for the Southland championship. SFA is two years removed from an 0-11 season, and most of the key players from last year’s much-improved defense are back. The Lumberjacks also bring back QB Jeremy Moses, the Southland’s co-player of the year. They must replace top receiver Duane Brooks, who caught 118 passes last season, and another receiver, Aaron Rhea, who caught 11 TD passes. The opening part of the schedule is tough, as SFA travels to Texas A&M and Northern Iowa in the first three weeks. The Oct. 9 McNeese State game in Lake Charles, La., should decide the Southland title.

VILLANOVA
2009 record: 14-1, 7-1 CAA, t1st South
Last postseason appearance: 2009
Last postseason victory: 2009
Starters returning (offense/defense): 8/7
Players to watch: QB Chris Whitney (64.4 comp%, 1,936 yards, 18 TD, 5 INT, 987 rush yards, 6 TD), WR Matt Szczur (51 rec., 610 yards, 4 TD, 813 rush yards, 10 TD), LB Terence Thomas (116 tackles, 8 1/2 sacks, 2 1/2 TFL, 1 PBU).
The skinny: What’s not to like about the Wildcats, who return nearly every key player from a team that won that national championship? Undoubtedly, Villanova is one of the handful of teams that is considered a preseason national championship favorite. Whitney is one of the nation’s top dual-threat QBs, and the return of Szczur—also a top baseball prospect—is key. Thomas was an All-American linebacker last season. The Wildcats’ only loss last season was to New Hampshire, and UNH must come to Villanova this year. Villanova opened last season with a win at Temple, which qualified for a bowl game last season, and the two teams will hook up again in this year’s opener.

WILLIAM & MARY
2009 record: 11-3, 6-2 CAA, 3rd South
Last postseason appearance: 2009
Last postseason victory: 2009
Starters returning (offense/defense): 6/6
Players to watch: RB Jonathan Grimes (1,294 yards, 9 TD), WR Cameron Dohse (30 rec., 566 yards, 2 TD), ILB Jake Trantin (90 tackles, 2 1/2 sacks, 7 1/2 TFL, 3 PBU, 3 INT)
The skinny: The Tribe made their second trip to the FCS semifinals in the last six years and fell by a point to eventual national champion Villanova. It was a great end to a season that started with a win over Virginia in Charlottesville. North Carolina transfer Mike Paulus comes in at quarterback to replace R.J. Archer, who threw for 2,778 yards last season. The defense, which allowed 12.1 points per game, must replace DE Adrian Tracy, who had 12 sacks last season. The defense is probably the biggest question mark heading into this season. The Tribe open with three of four on the road, but none are impossible games (at Massachusetts, Old Dominion and Maine). Villanova comes to Williamsburg for a rematch Oct. 2. The toughest road stretch is late, when the Tribe travels to North Carolina, New Hampshire and James Madison in consecutive weeks.

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