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Thursday, November 12, 2009

Weekly picks, 11/12

The additional football notes I talked about posting will be posted on Saturday morning now in the Gardner-Webb pregame blog. Need to hammer out more basketball stuff and get ready to jump on the road, so today’s blog will just be picks.

Before the picks, though, let’s take a quick look at the FCS games that Liberty fans should keep a keen eye on this weekend, as they will play a big role in the Flames’ potential playoff hopes. (Of course, if LU loses Saturday, those hopes are moot.)

JAMES MADISON (4-5) at MASSACHUSETTS (5-4): Liberty would very much like to see the Dukes win and continue to move up in the computer rankings. A UMass loss would completely eliminate the Minutemen from the playoff conversation, though I think they’re already done as it is.

LAFAYETTE (8-1) at HOLY CROSS (8-1): This is a playoff elimination game, as the Patriot League’s auto bid is on the line in Worcester, Mass. Liberty fans are definitely rooting for the Leopards to pull off the victory, as it will help the Flames’ strength of schedule ratings. Holy Cross would be a longshot to earn an at-large bid against a 9-2 Liberty, considering the result against common opponent Lafayette.

FLORIDA A&M (7-2) at HAMPTON (4-5): The Rattlers are a longshot for an at-large as it is, but a loss in Virginia would completely eliminate FAMU from the conversation.

STONY BROOK (5-4) at CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (4-5): If LU wins in Boiling Springs, the SBU game will be for the Big South title anyway. So if you’re an LU fan, you’d like to see Stony Brook win this game and enter the finale unbeaten. Looks better on the resume if the Flames then beat SBU on its home field.

SACRAMENTO STATE (4-5) at MONTANA STATE (6-3): The Hornets are a team of interest after knocking off Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado. If they beat MSU Saturday, the Bobcats’ at-large hopes will be done.

EASTERN WASHINGTON (6-3) at SOUTHERN UTAH (4-5): This is the money game for the Flames. SUU is 4-0 at home and 0-5 on the road, and the Thunderbirds have knocked off a couple of pretty good teams in Cedar City (Texas State, UC Davis). If the Thunderbirds hold serve here, Eastern will be eliminated.

NORTHERN ARIZONA (5-4) at WEBER STATE (5-4): One of these teams will be eliminated, and the other will have a chance to get to 7-4 with a home game in the final week. Weber is No. 16 in the GPI this week. NAU is tied for 19th. Not sure who LU fans should root for, really.

DELAWARE (6-3) at NAVY (7-3): An upset would be a disaster for the Flames. A Navy victory eliminates Delaware from the playoff bubble.

McNEESE STATE (7-2) at TEXAS STATE (6-3): It’s probably in Liberty’s best interest for McNeese to win here and knock the Bobcats out of the playoff conversation. I think the Southland will be a two-bid league regardless, and if Texas State were to win, it would open the possibility of the Southland being a three-bid league, because I think McNeese will beat Central Arkansas in the finale to get to 8-3.

Now, the picks:

LAST WEEK: 18-2 (.900)
SEASON RECORD: 198-38 (.839)

BIG SOUTH GAMES (Home team in ALL CAPS)
#16 Liberty 34, GARDNER-WEBB 20
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 31, Stony Brook 30
COASTAL CAROLINA 38, Presbyterian 22

TSN TOP 25
#1 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 38, Missouri State 17
#2 MONTANA 30, Northern Colorado 0
#3 Villanova 28, TOWSON 7
#4 Richmond 50, GEORGETOWN 0
#5 WILLIAM & MARY 38, #8 New Hampshire 20
#6 ELON 41, #7 Appalachian State 34
#9 SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 27, Morgan State 14
#10 McNeese State 44, #25 TEXAS STATE 35
#11 NORTHERN IOWA 38, Western Illinois 10
MINNESOTA 37, #12 South Dakota State 16
#20 Lafayette 27, #13 HOLY CROSS 21
#14 EASTERN ILLINOIS 31, Tennessee-Martin 21
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 38, #15 Stephen F. Austin 27
#17 JACKSONVILLE STATE 20, Tennessee Tech 17
SOUTHERN UTAH 34, #18 Eastern Washington 27
#19 WEBER STATE 35, Northern Arizona 17
#21 Prairie View A&M 23, ALCORN STATE 20
#22 Florida A&M 26, HAMPTON 20
NAVY 31, #23 Delaware 17
#24 COLGATE 28, Bucknell 14

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