Let’s get the picks out of the way first. Bad week last week:

LAST WEEK: 16-7 (.695)
SEASON RECORD: 180-36 (.833)

BIG SOUTH GAMES (Home team in CAPS)
COASTAL CAROLINA 21, Gardner-Webb 17
Charleston Southern 30, PRESBYTERIAN 14
#16 LIBERTY 44, VMI 20

SPORTS NETWORK TOP 25
#1 RICHMOND 31, #4 Villanova 21
#2 Montana 38, IDAHO STATE 10
#9 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 37, #3 Southern Illinois 31
#5 WILLIAM & MARY 55, Towson 7
#6 Elon 38, WESTERN CAROLINA 24
#7 APPALACHIAN STATE 41, Chattanooga 20
#10 South Carolina State 28, HOWARD 7
#11 NORTHERN IOWA 24, Youngstown State 16
#12 McNEESE STATE 38, Sam Houston State 27
#13 Holy Cross 26, LEHIGH 17
#15 STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 41, Nicholls State 13
#17 Jacksonville State 31, SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE 14
#25 LAFAYETTE 20, #18 Colgate 14
Texas State 31, #20 CENTRAL ARKANSAS 23
#22 PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 27, Alabama A&M 20
#23 DELAWARE 16, Hofstra 7
#24 FLORIDA A&M 33, North Carolina A&T 17

****

Now some notes:

* Liberty coach Danny Rocco made quite the statement to Doug Doughty of the Roanoke Times Wednesday. His quote, which appeared in Doughty’s college notebook, in regards to the FCS playoffs: “If we win out, we’ll get in. I’m almost convinced of it.“

Call me a skeptic, still. Look, there’s no doubt a 9-2 Liberty team (not a guarantee, by the way, with tough roadies left at Gardner-Webb and Stony Brook), will be in the conversation. And I can see Rocco’s line of thinking, too. Hey, if LU is ranked 16th after playing the lower-ranked teams (in terms of GPI) in the conference, that ranking can only improve as the competition gets better.

Now here’s the thing. History is completely against Liberty in this regard. Of the eight auto-bid conferences, four are truly FCS power leagues—the Big Sky, Southern, CAA and Missouri Valley. Historically, these leagues nearly always send an at-large team to the FCS playoffs.

Since the field expanded to 16 teams in 1986, the Big Sky was a one-bid league only once—in 1998 when no potential at-large had a better record than 7-4.

The SoCon has only been a one-bid league twice, in 1997 and 2003. The common thread? You guessed it. No at-large contender better than 7-4.

The Missouri Valley/Gateway has never been a one-bid league. The CAA hasn’t been one since 1990, when it was still the Yankee Conference, and that was before teams like James Madison and William & Mary had joined. It was only an eight-team conference at that point.

It’s extremely rare that an eight-win team from these leagues are excluded from the playoffs. Found two instances in the Big Sky: Portland State (8-3) in 1999, but the Vikings lost to Northern Arizona to end the season, and NAU ended up getting the second Big Sky bid. In 2003, Weber State finished 8-4, but the Wildcats won two games against DII teams, so it’s not surprising that they were left home.

So in reality, unless Liberty gets some more help from the power-conference teams, it really won’t matter what the Flames do down the stretch. It’s a guarantee—if Liberty is going up against a Montana State team that gets to 8-3 by beating undefeated Montana in its finale, MSU will get the bid over Liberty. Same with Eastern Washington if it gets to 8-3. Same with Northern Iowa if it gets to 8-3. Eight is a magic number in those conferences.

Now what I’m interested in seeing is a scenario where the last bid comes down to, say, Liberty and a 7-4 Weber State team. Seven-win teams rarely get at-large bids. But Weber played two FBS schools closely. So to compare the resumes:

—Liberty would be 8-1 against FCS competition with a good win at Lafayette and a loss at home to a near-.500 JMU team.

—Weber State would be 7-2 against FCS competition with a good win at Eastern Washington and a loss at home to a near-.500 Montana State team.

Will conference superiority win out then? Who knows. The committee does strange things. Liberty fans need to keep a keen eye on the Big Sky race and hope that Eastern Washington and Montana State each lose a game in the next few weeks. That will help the Flames’ cause immensely.

** Let’s talk a bit about Saturday’s game, and specifically about VMI fullback Howard Abegesah (pronounced A-buh-GAY-suh). After going five straight games without hitting the 100-yard mark, Abegesah rushed for 165 against Presbyterian and 160 against Charleston Southern. He’s scored five touchdowns this season, all in the last two weeks. So what’s gotten him going? For one, he’s healthy. And it helps that PC gives up close to 300 yards a game on the ground.

“He’s big, he’s physical. He’s tough. He runs hard. You can’t body tackle him,“ Rocco said. “You can’t shoulder tackle him. You’ve got to wrap him up. He bounces off all of these bodies you throw in there. He can run and he has speed. He’s a bona fide threat. I really have great admiration for him. He’s a great competitor.“

Rocco then added:

“We need to win this game out here on Saturday night. Then Abegesah will be gone. Kyle Hughes will be gone. Tim Maypray will be gone. Those guys seem like they’ve been there forever. They have accumulated thousands and thousands of yards. I’m hopeful we can find a way to contain them enough to win the football game.“

** VMI has been a bit better against the run this season, but overall, the Keydets have won of the worst defenses in FCS football. They’ve been particularly susceptible to the pass, allowing 280.4 yards per game through the air.

“We’ve had trouble with both (the short passing game and the downfield passing game),“ VMI coach Sparky Woods said. “Early in the year we gave up big passes down the field against James Madison. And we gave up some big passes down the field in the Richmond game. We’ve played the deep ball better later in the season, but they’ve thrown the ball effectively in front of us and then they’re able to take it and run and get first downs. So we’re not getting off the field on defense. ... Credit the people we’re playing. They’ve been executing those things. But we’ve struggled, too.

“We’ve not been very good in one-on-one situations. And you can’t double cover everyone. We’ve got to do a better job of stepping up to the challenge and covering these people that we’re playing. We need to get our hands on some balls and maybe knock some of them down.

“There was a time here where we couldn’t stop people from running or passing. So we’re playing a little bit better against the run. We’re investing a lot to do that. We bring up the safeties quite a bit, which puts our corners in more difficult situations.“

** Here’s an interesting note. Of VMI’s eight games, seven have been played in less than three hours. Four have been played in 2:35 or less. With the 7 p.m. start time, this reporter likes that stat.